alternative market update – end June 2025

​In the months leading up to 13th June 2025, tensions between Iran and Israel had escalated significantly following a series of covert operations, cyberattacks, and proxy engagements across the region, particularly in Syria and Lebanon. Both nations exchanged sharp rhetoric and low-intensity military actions, raising fears of a broader regional conflict. On 13th June, this simmering confrontation erupted into open hostilities when Israel launched a major airstrike, prompting a wave of retaliatory missile attacks by Iran. The conflict quickly spread, with several days of intense cross-border fire, targeting military and infrastructure assets. Despite growing international concern, the United States initially refrained from direct involvement, instead calling for restraint. However, on 21st June 2025, the United States launched a targeted strike on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow, aiming to significantly disrupt Iran’s enrichment capabilities. The operation marked a sharp escalation and drew immediate condemnation from Tehran. In response, Iran launched a missile and drone barrage at the US base in Qatar, causing minor infrastructure damage but no casualties. Days later, President Trump publicly called for a ceasefire, framing the US action as a deterrent rather than the beginning of a broader conflict. Since then, hostilities have subsided, though tensions in the region remain elevated and the risk of renewed confrontation persists.

*|MC_PREVIEW_TEXT|*

RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE VOL. 254 June 2025 Alternative Markets Update In the months leading up to 13th June 2025, tensions between Iran and Israel had escalated significantly following a series of covert operations, cyberattacks, and proxy engagements across the region, particularly in Syria and Lebanon. Both nations exchanged sharp rhetoric and low-intensity military actions, raising fears of a broader regional conflict. On 13th June, this simmering confrontation erupted into open hostilities when Israel launched a major airstrike, prompting a wave of retaliatory missile attacks by Iran. The conflict quickly spread, with several days of intense cross-border fire, targeting military and infrastructure assets. Despite growing international concern, the United States initially refrained from direct involvement, instead calling for restraint. However, on 21st June 2025, the United States launched a targeted strike on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow, aiming to significantly disrupt Iran’s enrichment capabilities. The operation marked a sharp escalation and drew immediate condemnation from Tehran. In response, Iran launched a missile and drone barrage at the US base in Qatar, causing minor infrastructure damage but no casualties. Days later, President Trump publicly called for a ceasefire, framing the US action as a deterrent rather than the beginning of a broader conflict. Since then, hostilities have subsided, though tensions in the region remain elevated and the risk of renewed confrontation persists. The escalation between Iran, Israel, and later the United States led to a notable spike in gold prices, as investors sought safe-haven assets amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Gold, which typically benefits from rising volatility and inflationary fears, was further supported by the growing risk of a broader regional conflict and potential disruptions to global energy markets. The threat of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments, raised concerns about supply chain instability and renewed inflationary pressures, both of which bolstered demand for gold. Crude oil also experienced upward pressure during the crisis, driven by fears of regional supply disruptions and the strategic vulnerability of shipping routes through the Gulf. However, following the US strike and Iran’s limited retaliation, the situation de-escalated rapidly after President Trump’s call for a ceasefire. As tensions eased, both gold and oil prices retreated from their highs. For the month of June 2025 overall, gold ended slightly lower, while crude oil recorded a marginal gain, reflecting initial fears offset by the eventual stabilisation of the region. Figure 1 shows the price developments of the two aforementioned assets during the month of June 2025. Figure 1: Price Development of Gold and Crude Oil in June, Source: Investing, July 2025 Despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty in June 2025, most notably the escalation between Israel and Iran, the cryptocurrency market remained remarkably stable, with volatility metrics subdued and investor positioning largely positive. This resilience, even amid broader market jitters, underscored the maturing profile of digital assets as an asset class. A significant catalyst for this stability was growing regulatory clarity in the United States, particularly with the advancement of the GENIUS Act, a comprehensive stablecoin framework. The bill, which passed the House on 6th May and the Senate on 17th June, still awaits final approval but has already been hailed as a landmark step in legitimising and integrating stablecoins into the regulated financial system. The altcoin ecosystem also stands to benefit further, as the potential approval of ETFs for Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC) is gaining momentum, with analysts assigning a probability of up to 95% of Solana’s ETF approval. Publicly traded crypto firms are reflecting this optimism: Coinbase has entered a notable bull run, supported by rising trading volumes and index inclusion, while Circle’s IPO continues to outperform expectations, signalling growing investor confidence in compliant crypto infrastructure. Figure 2 shows the impressive growth the aforementioned publicly traded cryptocurrencies during the month of June 2025. Figure 2: Price Development of Coinbase and Circle in June 2025, Source: Investing, July 2025 STONE MOUNTAIN CAPITAL Stone Mountain Capital is an advisory boutique established in 2012 and headquartered in London with offices Pfaeffikon in Switzerland, Dubai and Umm Al Quwain in United Arab Emirates and Tallinn in Estonia. We are advising 30+ best in class single hedge fund and multi-strategy managers across equity, credit, and tactical trading (global macro, CTAs and volatility). In private assets, we advise 10+ sponsors and general partners across private equity, venture capital, private credit, real estate, capital relief trades (CRT) by structuring funding vehicles, rating advisory and private placements. As of 2nd February 2024, Stone Mountain Capital has total alternative Assets under Advisory (AuA) of US$ 62.4 billion. US$ 48.5 billion is mandated in hedge funds and US$ 13.9 billion in private assets and corporate finance (private equity, venture capital, private debt, real estate, fintech). Stone Mountain Capital has arranged new capital commitments of US$ 1.95 billion across more than 25 hedge fund, private asset and corporate finance mandates and has been awarded over 115 industry awards for research, structuring and placement of alternative investments. As a socially responsible group, Stone Mountain Capital is a signatory to the UN Principles for Responsible Investing (PRI). Stone Mountain Capital applies Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) filters to all off its alternative investment strategies and general partners on behalf of investors.    Our Team   Our Mandates   Our Research   Our News     Contact We are able to source any specific alternative investment search and maintain relationships with dozens of best-in-class hedge fund managers, private equity and private debt general partners (GPs) and real estate and infrastructure developers. We don’t pass any costs on to our investors, since our compensation comes from our mandated managers, GPs and developers. Please contact us, should you require further information about our solutions.   Schedule a call with the team Main UK Tel.: +44 207 268 4905 Main Switzerland Tel.: +41 44 586 45 55 Main UAE Tel.: +971 4383 5386 Main Estonia Tel.: +372 618 8133 We have updated our privacy policy to take into account the new requirements of the GDPR. Please take some time to read the policy, which explains what personal data we collect, why we collect it, how we use it and other relevant information. You can review our privacy policy here, our anti-bribery policy here and our commitment to the UK stewardship code here. Stone Mountain Capital LTD is registered (Reference: ZA589246) in the data protection public register of the Information Commissioner's Office ('ICO') in the United Kingdom. No action is required if you wish to remain in contact, however please reply if you want your details removed by contacting us at [email protected] or by using the unsubscribe button below. In case this newsletter has been forwarded to you and you want to subscribe, please click here. Stone Mountain Capital is a limited company (LTD) registered in England & Wales with registered number 8763463. The registered address is: One Mayfair Place, Devonshire House, Mayfair, London W1J 8AJ, England, United Kingdom. Stone Mountain Capital LTD is authorised and regulated with FRN: 929802 by the Financial Conduct Authority (‘FCA’) in the United Kingdom. Stone Mountain Capital LTD is the Distributor of foreign collective investment schemes distributed to qualified investors in Switzerland. Certain of those foreign collective investment schemes are represented by First Independent Fund Services LTD, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (‘FINMA') as Swiss Representative of foreign collective investment schemes pursuant to Art 13 para 2 let. h in the Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes (CISA). Stone Mountain Capital LTD conducts securities related activities in the U.S. pursuant to a Securities and Exchange Commission ('SEC') Rule 15a-6 Agreement with Crito Capital LLC, a U.S. SEC registered broker-dealer, and member of Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA’), Securities Investor Protection Corporation (‘SIPC’) and Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (‘MSRB').  Stone Mountain Capital Partners LLP is incorporated as limited liability partnership in England & Wales with company registration number: OC430515. Its registered office is: One Mayfair Place, Devonshire House, Mayfair, London W1J 8AJ, United Kingdom. Stone Mountain Capital Partners LLP is registered as Appointed Representative with FRN: 934964 of Stone Mountain Capital LTD which is authorised and regulated with FRN: 929802 by the Financial Conduct Authority (‘FCA’) in the United Kingdom.  Stone Mountain Capital Ventures LLP is incorporated as limited liability partnership in England & Wales with company registration number: OC439509. Its registered office is: Devonshire House, ​One Mayfair Place, Mayfair, London W1J 8AJ, United Kingdom. Stone Mountain Capital Ventures LLP is incorporated as Appointed Representative with FRN: 967914 of Stone Mountain Capital LTD which is authorized and regulated with FRN: 929802 by the Financial Conduct Authority (‘FCA’) in the United Kingdom. Stone Mountain Capital Advisers OÜ is registered as Private Limited Company Osaühing (OÜ) and investment company at: Harju maakond, Kesklinna linnaosa, Järvevana tee 9, 11314, Tallinn, Estonia with company registration number: 17054974. Stone Mountain Capital FZC is registered as Free Zone Company (FZC), a limited liability company in United Arab Emirates (UAE) at: Atrium Tower, Office AT-101, 1st Floor, One UAQ, P.O. Box: 7073, UAQ Free Trade Zone, Umm Al Quwain, United Arab Emirates with company registration number: 6813. Stone Mountain Capital FZC (DMCC Branch) is registered as branch of Stone Mountain Capital FZC and investment company at: Almas Tower, Level 54, Office 5431, P.O. Box: 112911, Jumeirah Lake Towers (JLT), Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) Free Zone, Dubai, United Arab Emirates with company registration number DMCC-912005. All information in this perspective including research is classified as minor acceptable non-monetary benefits ('MNMB') in accordance with article 11(5)(a) of the MiFID Delegated Directive (EU) 2017/593 and FCA COBS 2.3A.19. For United Arab Emirates (excluding Dubai International Financial Centre (’DIFC’) and Abu Dhabi Global Market (’ADGM‘)) residents only. This website, any document, and the information contained herein, does not constitute, and is not intended to constitute, a public offer of securities in the United Arab Emirates (’UAE‘) and accordingly should not be construed as such. Securities are only being offered to a limited number of exempt investors in the UAE who fall under one of the following categories of Exempt Qualified Investors: (1) an investor which is able to manage its investments on its own (unless such person wishes to be classified as a retail investor), namely: (a) the federal government, local governments, and governmental entities, institutions and authorities, or companies wholly-owned by any such entities; (b) foreign governments, their respective entities, institutions and authorities or companies wholly owned by any such entities; (c) international entities and organisations; (d) entities licensed by the Securities and Commodities Authority (the ’SCA‘) or a regulatory authority that is an ordinary or associate member of the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (a “Counterpart Authority”); or (e) any legal person that meets, as at the date of its most recent financial statements, at least two of the following conditions: (i) it has a total assets or balance sheet of AED 75 million; (ii) it has a net annual turnover of AED 150 million; (iii) it has total equity or paid-up capital of AED 7 million; or (2) a natural person licensed by the SCA or a Counterpart Authority to carry out any of the functions related to financial activities or services, (each an “Exempt Qualified Investor”). The Securities have not been approved by or licensed or registered with the UAE Central Bank, the SCA, the Dubai Financial Services Authority (’DFSA‘), the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (’FSRA’) or any other relevant licensing authorities or governmental agencies in the UAE (the ‘Authorities‘). The Authorities assume no liability for any investment made as an Exempt Qualified Investor. This website, any documents and securities are for the use of Exempt Qualified Investors only and should not be given or shown to any other person (other than employees, agents or consultants in connection with a named addressee's consideration thereof). Stone Mountain Capital FZC is registered as Free Zone Company (FZC), a limited liability company in United Arab Emirates (UAE) at: Atrium Tower, Office AT-101, 1st Floor, One UAQ, P.O. Box: 7073, UAQ Free Trade Zone, Umm Al Quwain, United Arab Emirates with company registration number: 6813. Stone Mountain Capital FZC (DMCC Branch) is registered as branch of Stone Mountain Capital FZC and investment company at: Almas Tower, Level 54, Office 5431, P.O. Box: 112911, Jumeirah Lake Towers (JLT), Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) Free Zone, Dubai, United Arab Emirates with company registration number DMCC-912005. Copyright © 2025 Stone Mountain Capital LTD. All rights reserved. Any business communication, sent by or on behalf of Stone Mountain Capital LTD or one of its affiliated firms or other entities (together "Stone Mountain"), is confidential and may be privileged or otherwise protected. This e-mail message is for information purposes only, it is not a recommendation, advice, offer or solicitation to buy or sell a product or service nor an official confirmation of any transaction. It is directed at persons who are professionals and is not intended for retail customer use. This e-mail message and any attachments are for the sole use of the intended recipient(s). Our LTD accepts no liability for the content of this email, or for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information provided, unless that information is subsequently confirmed in writing. Any views or opinions presented in this email are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the limited company. Any unauthorised review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by reply e-mail and destroy all copies of the original message and any attachments. By replying to this e-mail, you consent to Stone Mountain monitoring the content of any e-mails you send to or receive from Stone Mountain. Stone Mountain is not liable for any opinions expressed by the sender where this is a non-business e-mail. Emails are not secure and cannot be guaranteed to be error free. Anyone who communicates with us by email is taken to accept these risks. This message is subject to our terms at our Disclaimer.