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ALTERNATIVE MARKETS UPDATE – END MAY 2024

30/5/2024

 
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​Cryptocurrencies started very promising in 2024, with the approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs on 10th January. In anticipation of a possible approval, Bitcoin started to surge in December 2023, which also led to price increases for other cryptocurrencies. Shortly after the approval, the much-anticipated Bitcoin Halving further boosted the ecosystem with a particularly strong performance in March 2024. The Bitcoin Halving took place in mid-April, leading to a slight dip in the market. Historically, this is a common occurrence, with most of the gains occurring ahead of the event, followed by a period of “selling the news” or profit taking, leading to slight declines. In addition, several ETF providers also applied for approval of spot Ether ETFs following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Until mid-May 2024, the chances of approval were almost unanimously seen as close to zero. However, when the SEC set a deadline for the decision, the view on a potential approval quickly changed. A few days later, the SEC released a statement confirming the approval of spot Ether ETFs on 23rd May 2024. Figure 1 shows the price of Ethereum from 2023 to the present and its performance since then. Most of Ethereum's gains this year have come from the very strong February and March, with another significant spike when the SEC released the statement on the ETF approval deadline. At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $3.8k with a market capitalisation of $463bn.
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RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE VOL. 228
May 2024
Alternative Markets Update
Cryptocurrencies started very promising in 2024, with the approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs on 10th January. In anticipation of a possible approval, Bitcoin started to surge in December 2023, which also led to price increases for other cryptocurrencies. Shortly after the approval, the much-anticipated Bitcoin Halving further boosted the ecosystem with a particularly strong performance in March 2024. The Bitcoin Halving took place in mid-April, leading to a slight dip in the market. Historically, this is a common occurrence, with most of the gains occurring ahead of the event, followed by a period of “selling the news” or profit taking, leading to slight declines. In addition, several ETF providers also applied for approval of spot Ether ETFs following the approval of Bitcoin ETFs. Until mid-May 2024, the chances of approval were almost unanimously seen as close to zero. However, when the SEC set a deadline for the decision, the view on a potential approval quickly changed. A few days later, the SEC released a statement confirming the approval of spot Ether ETFs on 23rd May 2024. Figure 1 shows the price of Ethereum from 2023 to the present and its performance since then. Most of Ethereum's gains this year have come from the very strong February and March, with another significant spike when the SEC released the statement on the ETF approval deadline. At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $3.8k with a market capitalisation of $463bn.
Figure 1: Ethereum Price Development Since 2023 and Ether Spot Approval Date, Source: CoinMarketCap, May 2024
Commodities have also seen strong price rises recently. Gold has been prominently featured in the news recently, as the commodity continues to hit new record highs. At the time of writing, gold is trading at $2,359 per ounce, just below its record high of $2,426, set on 20th May 2024. Prior to March 2024, gold traded at around $2,000 per ounce for several months. Since Covid-19, gold has reached a record high (at the time) of just over $2,000 per ounce, and until March 2024, it occasionally reached similar heights, but rarely for a long time. It was not until March 2024 that the commodity began to rise significantly in value. However, the exact reason for this recent surge is somewhat unclear, as the economic ecosystem and the geopolitical situation have been experiencing heightened uncertainty for some time. Most likely, central bank demand for gold has led the current rally, as Eastern central banks have accumulated a lot of gold over the years. Western central banks have also started to increase their gold holdings, which is likely to have led to supply shortages. Figure 2 shows the indexed performance of gold, silver, and copper from 2023 to the present.
Silver's performance has been similar to gold's. While gold has maintained a relatively high value recently, this has not been the case for silver, which has gained all of its value since March 2024 and is close to gold's performance since the beginning of 2023. Silver is currently trading at $32 an ounce, but is still a long way from its previous record high of $46 in 2011. After reaching its record in 2011, its value gradually fell to around $13 per ounce in 2015, where it remained until the initial impact of Covid-19. The commodity then traded relatively steadily between $21 and $25 until mid-2022. In addition to a general push towards commodities as a hedge against economic and geopolitical uncertainty, silver also benefited from increased industrial use, a weakening US dollar and supply constraints.
Lastly, copper has followed a similar trajectory to silver in recent months. While copper prices have been flat since the beginning of 2023, the commodity has risen by around 30% since March 2024, recouping the loss of around 20% it suffered last year. Currently, copper is trading at $4.87 per ounce, just below its previous record high of $5.06 on 21 May 2024. In the long term, demand for copper is likely to continue to rise. Not only is it a key component in electric vehicles, but it is also highly relevant to renewable energy, such as wind turbines and solar panels. While electric vehicles are currently struggling, demand for renewable energy will increase significantly with ambitious climate targets for 2050. China, the largest consumer of copper, has issued 1 trillion yuan of bonds to finance infrastructure projects, which has been a key driver of the recent rally. Increased demand combined with supply shortages should lead to significant potential price increases. Supply shortages have emerged as major mines have closed and others have struggled with ore grades.
Figure 2: Indexed Gold, Silver, and Copper Performance Since January 2023 to May 2024, Sources: Wisdomtree ETFs & Yahoo Finance, May 2024
STONE MOUNTAIN CAPITAL
Stone Mountain Capital is an advisory boutique established in 2012 and headquartered in London with offices Pfaeffikon in Switzerland, Dubai and Umm Al Quwain in United Arab Emirates. We are advising 30+ best in class single hedge fund and multi-strategy managers across equity, credit, and tactical trading (global macro, CTAs and volatility). In private assets, we advise 10+ sponsors and general partners across private equity, venture capital, private credit, real estate, capital relief trades (CRT) by structuring funding vehicles, rating advisory and private placements. As of 2nd February 2024, Stone Mountain Capital has total alternative Assets under Advisory (AuA) of US$ 62.4 billion. US$ 48.5 billion is mandated in hedge funds and US$ 13.9 billion in private assets and corporate finance (private equity, venture capital, private debt, real estate, fintech). Stone Mountain Capital has arranged new capital commitments of US$ 1.95 billion across more than 25 hedge fund, private asset and corporate finance mandates and has been awarded over 90 industry awards for research, structuring and placement of alternative investments. As a socially responsible group, Stone Mountain Capital is a signatory to the UN Principles for Responsible Investing (PRI). Stone Mountain Capital applies Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) filters to all off its alternative investment strategies and general partners on behalf of investors. 
 
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