​Throughout 2025, the US macroeconomic environment was characterised by a gradual normalisation following the post-inflation shock period of prior years. Inflation was largely brought under control, consistently hovering in a narrow 2-3% range - still above the Federal Reserve’s formal 2% target, but sufficiently contained to reduce its dominance in policy deliberations. As price pressures stabilised, the Fed progressively shifted its focus towards labour-market dynamics, with unemployment emerging as the marginal variable guiding monetary policy decisions. During the first half of the year, policymakers remained deliberately cautious, refraining from early rate cuts amid concerns that premature easing could reignite inflation, particularly given still-historically strong employment conditions, even as unemployment began to trend higher. This stance changed in the autumn and winter months, when a clearer softening in labour markets, combined with inflation remaining at tolerable levels, provided the Fed with sufficient confidence to pivot. Over this period, the central bank implemented three 25 basis-point rate cuts, signalling a controlled transition towards a more accommodative stance while maintaining credibility on inflation containment.

​The opening weeks of 2026 have already delivered one of the most explosive geopolitical shocks in recent memory, with the United States mounting a military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and transported him to the US to face federal charges, effectively removing him from power and handing de-facto control of Caracas to interim authorities. The US administration has signalled it will “run” Venezuela through a transition period while leveraging newly accessible state oil resources, including the planned transfer of 30–50 million barrels of previously sanctioned crude to US markets. The strategic motive for this bold action extends beyond regime change. Venezuela holds the largest proven oil reserves in the world, particularly heavy crude concentrated in the Orinoco Belt, whose grades are unattractive to many refiners but essential for certain US refineries. Regaining control over this crude not only offers a potential boost to US energy security, it also explicitly aims to curtail the flow of subsidised Venezuelan oil to geopolitical competitors, most notably China (which has been a major buyer and financier) and Cuba, whose power grids and economy have entirely depended on Venezuelan shipments.