​Over the past two weeks, the Iran war has entered a more intense yet increasingly fluid phase, characterised by sustained US–Israel airstrikes that have significantly degraded Iran’s missile and military infrastructure while leaving residual retaliatory capacity intact. More recently, however, the US has reportedly scaled back or suspended parts of its strike activity, coinciding with early-stage, indirect peace negotiations that are allegedly taking place, suggesting a potential tactical pause rather than a definitive de-escalation. At the same time, escalation risks remain elevated, with contingency planning for ground operations still on the table and ongoing proxy activity across the region reinforcing the threat of a broader multi-front confrontation. Strategic pressure on key infrastructure and maritime chokepoints persists, while conditions within Iran continue to deteriorate amid infrastructure damage and mounting humanitarian strain. Overall, the conflict appears to be transitioning from peak intensity towards a more uncertain phase balancing military pressure with tentative diplomatic engagement.

The current war with Iran began in late February 2026, when the United States and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign targeting Iran’s nuclear programme, missile infrastructure, and senior leadership. The opening phase of the conflict resembled a decapitation strategy, with early strikes reportedly aimed at eliminating key political and military decision-makers in order to disrupt Iran’s command structure and weaken the regime’s ability to coordinate a response. Following these initial attacks, the campaign transitioned into a broader air superiority and strategic degradation effort, involving sustained strikes against military installations, missile launch sites, and critical infrastructure across the country. Iran subsequently retaliated with ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel and U.S. military assets across the region, turning the confrontation into a sustained exchange of strikes rather than a limited punitive operation. As regional actors and Iranian proxy forces became increasingly involved, the conflict has gradually regionalised into a wider Middle Eastern confrontation, raising concerns about broader geopolitical escalation and potential disruptions to energy markets and global trade routes.