Alternative Markets Update June 2019
June started in a more dynamic fashion for hedges funds are already recouped May’s losses. The anticipation of an interest rate cut this year as a result of Fed’s announcements resulted to a strong bounce back for equity markets. Equity hedge strategies profited the most during the first weeks of June, a month that so far is characterised by the trade war discussions and further tariff plans from US. Macro and CTA strategies had their bets right so far this month and they are waiting to capitalise on future volatility events. Bitcoin’s momentum slowed down in June and its price has receded from $8,740 to $7,900, reaching a market cap of $140bn. Ethereum had also a
slightly negative month so far and is keep following the same pattern as bitcoin.
Macro and Political Outlook June 2019 MacroEagle
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The new era of presidency in the U.S. is marked with significant changes, with the Treasury Secretary announcing tax reforms in the next six months and the FED ready to increase rates. Hedge funds have momentum and they extended their January gains into February, with CTAs posting the biggest returns according to HFRX index. Equity hedge, macro and event-driven strategies exhibited similar robust performance and proving that they overcame last year’s underperformance and they gaze into the future with confidence. A Preqin survey evidence a large increase in the number of alternative investors and the performance of alternative asset classes is encouraging for the future of the industry. In debt markets, the risk retention regime leads to lower volumes in CLO issuance and fewer deals. There is an increasing appetite for private debt strategies and the economic outlook may suggest a growth in commitments over the next two years. There are more funds focusing on European credit, which is indicative of the opportunities in the space amid a relatively uncertain political scenery. Private equity fundraising continues in solid pace, while competition for deals is increasing rapidly alongside the number of funds in the market. Adding hedge funds, that compete for similar deals, makes the identification of opportunities even harder. Both private debt and equity strategies focus on the mid-market spectrum as the opportunities there are more attractive. The same scenery prevails in real estate industry with high prices and increased competition being the main feature. The investment activity slowed down and the macro outlook with interest rate growth expectations and political uncertainty are the most significant drivers behind the slowdown.
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2016 was a landmark year for the financial world because of a series of events that shaped a new reality. Last year was marked by major geopolitical events such as, U.S. elections and rumours about Russia’s interference, Brexit, Italian referendum, the Turkish coup, missile tests from North Korea and terrorism. These events combined with the low-interest rates environment in major developed economies and the continuation of monetary policies created a volatile scenery. Amid this environment, hedge funds performed well for their investors. After a disappointing beginning in 2016, they managed to turnaround the situation. Hedge funds got hit hard in the first two months of 2016 by the uncertainty about Chinese and other emerging market economies and by the drop in oil prices. The slow economic activity continued in February as the Brexit talks were intensified amid an underperformance of emerging markets, which led to volatility and losses in equities. CTAs were the only strategies performing well, but in March a reversal of this scenery was witnessed. Emerging markets resurrected, oil and commodities recovered, while the U.S. dollar lost to all major currencies. The increase in implied volatility and the tightening of spreads led to gains for relative value strategies in April, which was the month of some of the biggest pension funds’ exodus from the asset class. After that, a whole discussion was initiated regarding hedge fund fees and performance, putting more pressure on managers. During May and June, hedge funds were continuing their positive trend, still trying to recover from the poor first two months of the year, with Bitcoin rallying and being the biggest winner in the currencies war. July was the month of Brexit and when Germany became the second G-7 nation to issue negative yielding bonds. August was a quiet month, but September found investors worried about the policies in US and Europe, as FED members appeared to have dichotomous views and ECB alongside BoE continuing their QE practices. October found event-driven hedge funds in the top of the table in terms of performance, while CTAs found themselves in negative territories and the rest of the industry was trying to restore investors’ confidence and maintain their assets. The outcome of the U.S. elections in November created a sentiment of economic growth and structured credit strategies revived in the anticipation of deregulation. This outcome also benefited bitcoin, which enjoyed a rally in November and finished 2016 in an emphatic way with an increase more than 115% in its price overall. Meanwhile, direct lending and distressed debt strategies were attracting more and more institutional money in the hunt for yield from investors. The truly uncorrelated alternative income strategies are the solution to the yield problem and investors shifted from traditional fixed income strategies to alternatives. Deloitte’s Alternative Lender tracker noticed an increase in the deal flow in the private credit space and the momentum in 2016 favoured private debt funds, with the biggest brands in private equity creating private debt departments. Hedge funds completed their full recovery in December posting gains in a challenging year. They are preparing for an exciting year for active investing during 2017. According to Preqin, private equity buyout deals fell in 2016, with most of them being in the U.S. and then Europe was following. Alternatives had an interesting and challenging year and boosted their popularity amongst institutional investors, who are targeting to increase their allocations over the years to come.
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In 2017, a similar economic scenery is expected as during 2016 in an extension of the current economic cycle, and this year will be a transitory year towards a potentially unprecedented geopolitical and economic environment. This uncertainty will give rise to active investing and dynamic asset allocation with alternatives being the most attractive choice for investors. Trump’s election and Brexit belong to the past and the upcoming elections in Europe and the highly anticipated rate rises in the U.S. are going to attract a lot of investors’ attention this year. There are new risks on the horizon and investors are called to make wise choices regarding their allocations to avoid these risks and profit from them. Hedge funds have a bright outlook in 2017 after reversing the bad start in 2016 and finishing strong. The higher anticipated volatility in the markets creates opportunities for alpha-pursuing strategies across the major asset classes. Credit/fixed income strategies with short duration are expected to perform better in the space as most investors are looking for alternative income strategies such as direct lending or real estate debt. Emerging market debt enjoyed an amazing year 2016, but the rising U.S. dollar could make things worse for them this year, but there are still some very attractive opportunities. The forecasted U.S. economic growth, global inflation and a potential increase in bond yields will turn investors’ attention to sector-focused funds, systematic equity algorithmic strategies and niche strategies around U.S. equities. European equities could also offer investors with opportunities as there were outflows from European markets amid the turbulent political scenery. On the short-term, market neutral strategies could play an important role to every portfolio until the political scenery starts clearing out. Tactical trading strategies are the most exciting as volatility in the markets is about to surge, and volatility and CTA strategies are positioning themselves accordingly to profit from this environment. Discretionary Macro strategies have a ton of opportunities across asset classes with rates, currencies, commodities and emerging markets being the most lucrative. Finally, Bitcoin is expected to continue the rally it experienced in 2016 with major sovereign economies ready to accept it as addition to the U.S. dollar and a storage of value comparable to gold. The market capitalization of bitcoin is at an all-time high and bitcoin is competing fiercely and profitably with currencies and commodities as the best performing asset class during 2016. Fund of hedge funds struggled in 2016 and 2017 will make no difference as investors turn their focus to multi-strategy funds around credit and equity. Overall, there is a confident feeling on hedge funds with outflows to be limited and new investors ready to explore this asset class in their chase for uncorrelated returns. Private debt in 2017 will continue the momentum of last the years with increased deal flow and competition in both the sides of the Atlantic. The most intriguing feature of this asset class is the uncorrelated alpha generated combined with low volatility. In 2016 it outperformed both equites and credit. Volcker rule, Dodd-Frank, Solvency II, Basel III & IV, rising rates, risk retention rules deadline and central banks’ policies make the asset class extremely attractive. The asset class will attract more traditional fixed income investors as they are looking for alternative income strategies globally. Direct lending is the sub-strategy that will allure huge interest because it provides downside protection, access to attractive middle-market loans and a diversification effect to every portfolio. Direct lending in Europe is still an under-developed asset class and proper loan selection and sourcing could generate very attractive value, whereby investors should focus on sector and regional lending strategies. In private equity, there is huge demand for quality assets, but the struggle this year will be the high valuations. The volumes of PE transactions could increase due to the Volcker rule and investors are looking for best-ideas portfolios. The concept is similar to private debt in terms of opportunities as most European mid-cap companies have difficulties in accessing capital. Overall, 2017 appears to be an exciting year for alternative investments amid a very uncertain environment. The strategies that look promising this year are direct lending strategies in the U.S. and Europe, CTAs, global macro, volatility and bitcoin as we identify more space for opportunities.
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With 2015 GDP of US$10.87 trillion, China is the world’s second-biggest economy behind USA. Its banking assets are around three times the size of its GDP while its stock markets, even after last year’s crash, were together worth $6.27 trillion in 2015, second only to America’s. Its bond market is the third largest behind USA and Japan but growing very rapidly. China is the third largest creditor nation behind Japan and Germany. At the end of September 2016, foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.17 trillion (nearly three times that of Japan, which is in second position globally) but they have been steadily declining since hitting a peak level of nearly US$4 trillion in June 2014.
China’s spectacular growth during the last decade has not only made it the “big elephant in the room” on the world stage, but has also created major imbalances in its economy, resulting in a major risk of contagion across the globe.
For example, official estimates for non-performing loans (NPL) stood at close to $300 billion, double the level of 2014. If off-balance sheet and shadow banking loans such as trusts and peer-peer-lending (P2P) were included, NPLs would be much higher. In 2015 alone, investors have lost around $25 billion through financial fraud and nearly $670 billion of capital has left the country while China spent nearly $200 billion to prop up its stock market. These are just a selection of some worrying statistics, which have become a focus of global investors.
In the summer of 2015, a mere 2% devaluation of the Chinese yuan sent global markets tumbling. There were similar China related worries for global markets in early 2016. The slightest of concerns over slowdown in China is having major consequences for commodity exporting countries. So, it is a big understatement to say that the prospect of a China hard landing and the impact on commodity producers and global stock, bond and currency markets would be very severe.
Global investors are currently pre-occupied with issues such as the US Presidential Elections, the nature and timing of Federal Reserve expected tightening and Brexit. China concerns appear to be on the back burner, at least for now. However, they certainly haven’t gone away and will continue to remain as one of the major concerns for investors across all asset classes, across the globe.
In this Research Perspective, we review some of the China issues that will continue to remain as major factors in driving global investment decisions across many of asset classes in the coming years.