ALTERNATIVE MARKETS UPDATE - MID FEBRUARY 2023

​Although 2022 is over, the problems it brought with it are not. Inflation is still high, albeit not at peak levels of 2022. With this development, central banks are likely to stop hiking relatively soon, given that inflation keeps coming down. In the short-term, central banks will continue to hike with some of them reducing the size of the steps. The ECB raised its target rate in early February by another 50bps and announced they will continue to do so. While inflation in the US is better under control than in Europe, they also have their share of problems with a recession on the horizon. Rates are much higher with a lower (but historically still very high) inflation. The US is also facing the largest yield curve inversion since the 1980s, which is persisting for more than half a year by now. In this ecosystem, it is also not surprising that the US reached another peak in its trade deficit. While these developments are somewhat to be expected from the underlying economic situation, the labour market has been as a positive indicator for the entire 2022. In January 2023, the largest job cuts since 2020 was observed. However, this is largely stemming from huge job cuts of big tech stocks, which have suffered a contraction in 2022 after their bull run in 2021. The job cuts are also understandable given that many big tech firms have had their worst or close to their worst growth rate in their history. Similar things can be observed when looking at their revenues. Regarding the unemployment rate in general, it is still very low and there was consistent decline since the beginning of Covid-19. At least this indicator eases some of the pressure of the otherwise highly uncertain economy. In this ecosystem, market participants expect few further hikes with lower rates towards to the end of 2023 and thereafter. With the strong labour market in mind, it would be a great achievement for the Fed to combat inflation effectively without destroying the currently strong labour market. In this instance, it is realistic, as the cause of inflation were the policies applied during Covid-19, most notably the financial stimulus and essentially unlimited borrowing, led to inflow of available of money, which is in itself independent of the labour market. Figure 1 summarizes the expected development of the Fed fund rate until 2025. In the UK, the situation looks a bit more dire. While the BoE has hiked in similar frequencies, it could not combat inflation as effectively as the US. In addition, the UK is more directly affected by the war, which increases the overall pressure on markets. Despite, the BoE substantially adjusted their recession forecast, in which the GDP should only drop by 0.8% compared to almost 3% in their prior forecast. Figure 2 provides an overview of the new and old forecast of the BoE until 2025.

Read More