In the current market environment, alternative assets are well positioned. Due to the rise in inflation recently, the falling interest rates and equities being at record highs, it is difficult to allocate capital without huge risks. In this environment, alternative assets provide an attractive opportunity to reduce risk and increase the upside potential. During the last quarter, hedge funds and private equity have reached their record AuM. The interest in hedge funds is likely to increase further, as the industry is doing very well. Not only were drawdowns limited in March 2020, but the recovery was exceptionally strong. Furthermore, the gains in 2021 so far are the best in the last two decades and the number of launches outnumbered the numbers of closures in Q2 2021. Private equity has developed similarly over the last year. Although the beginning was difficult, the subsequent performance was great. However, operating in private equity needs a bit more caution, as a record amount of dry powder was assembled in the last year and the competition in the market fierce, which in turn, leads to higher prices and valuations. In particular in the VC space, voices of a bubble are getting louder. Housing prices have shown a very strong recovery from an initial slump after the pandemic hit, which is a consequence from the extraordinary financial conditions, largely caused by fiscal stimulus by governments and the loose monetary policy by central banks. Credit spreads have fallen to an almost record low level, despite declining profits from companies, at least initially. This suggests that market participants are aggressively seeking risk in the current financial market. Figure 1 shows a comparison of corporate spreads, equity prices and housing prices. On a relative scale, housing prices have risen more than equities since the initial Covid-19 outbreak. KKR for example has raised a $2.2bn fund for real estate deals in Europe, but real estate investments are surging as well in developing countries, such as in the UAE, in which luxury house sales are rising. There is also an increased interest in real estate tech which surged recently, certainly also boosted by the generally great performance of tech stocks.
Alternative Markets Update March 2021
In the current uncertainty in the markets, macroeconomic factors play an important role aside from Covid-19 and the vaccination efforts. Inflation is a major concern in 2021, even though it was very obvious in 2020 already. However, in 2020, it was completely overshadowed by Covid-19 and the tremendous surge in equity markets among others. Inflation is a concern around the world, caused by the severe interventions undertaken by central banks. In particular in the US, where the FED intervened with money printing on such a scale that it cannot be compared to any other economy. This was largely required, as conventional monetary policy was not enough, for example, lowering the interest rates to the area around 0%. Even quantitative easing could not solve the problem, even though the FED’s balance sheet ballooned. Figure 1 shows the FED’s balance sheet over the last five years. At the beginning of the crisis, the federal reserve was at around $4.3tn. In 2020, this increased by 76% to $7.3tn and is still rising in 2021. Currently, it is at almost $7.7tn. In comparison to 2008, during which the federal reserve increased by 151%, the balance sheet increased by “only” $1.3tn in absolute terms. It is important to note that during the last two decades, the FED’s balance never declined by more than 1% on an annual basis with one exception being 2018 with a decrease of 8%. Interest rates in the US have recovered quite spectacularly over the last months. Figure 2 shows the development of interest rates in major economies over the last few months. The US interest rates are higher than any other interest rate from the UK, Europe or Japan, both short- and long-term. The short-term interest rates have remained very stable, while the long-term rates have increased a lot, for example, the 10-y US treasury note is soon back at 2%.
Alternative Markets Update February 2021
Hedge funds did not do that well in January 2021, as they could not continue their strong upward trend from the last quarter in 2020. Equity-related and fund of hedge funds strategies were down between 0% and 2%, whereas fixed income strategies ended the month slightly positive. Global macro strategies were in between the equity and credit strategies. Our most profitable strategies in January were crypto-related strategies, one of which is up almost 100% in one month only. This was driven largely by the growth in altcoins, in particular smaller ones. February 2021 is likely to affect equity strategies badly, as last week, stock markets dipped, due to profit taking in technology stocks and somewhat larger concerns about inflation. The inflation concerns are rising, as interest rates are increasing at the longer time horizon. In particular in the US and the UK a yield curve steepening is happening. This is further increased by the development in the central banks’ balance sheet, which have strongly grown. Figure 1 shows the central bank balance sheet over the last 15 years including a projection until the end 2022, which implied that the G4 central banks’ balance sheets will almost double since the start of 2020. Moreover, according to Figure 2, global debt has skyrocketed as well since 2020, as the global debt increased from around $220tn to $270tn at the end of 2020 and is expected to grow to close to $300tn at the end of 2022.