​Since President Trump announced a pause on tariffs in early April 2025, equity markets have rallied significantly. As shown in Figure 1, the S&P 500 rallied by more than 15% in the past five weeks and closed last week with a positive performance in 2025. Despite this rally, market participants remain hesitant, as uncertainties regarding the long-term effects of tariff policies linger. Goldman Sachs, while acknowledging the positive momentum, still projects a significant chance of recession, having recently reduced their recession probability from 45% to 35% following the tariff pause and recent trade developments.

​In early April 2025, President Trump reignited trade tensions with sweeping tariffs - 10% on all imports and up to 50% for countries with "unfair" practices, hitting China hardest at 145%. China retaliated with up to 125% tariffs, blacklisting US firms and restricting exports of rare earths. Facing global backlash, Trump announced a 90-day delay for most countries (excluding China) and eased tariffs on key sectors like tech and pharma. Markets, initially hopeful over pro-business policies, turned volatile as concerns over aggressive trade moves mounted. The VIX spiked to 60 on Liberation Day - levels not seen since 2008 and 2020. Upon the delay of the tariff implementation, volatility eased quickly, as shown in Figure 1. Volatility levels have dropped to below 25, which is only slightly elevated compared to historical levels.

​Last week, President Donald Trump reignited global trade tensions by continuing his tariff policy. During “Liberation Day,” the President announced a sweeping plan, imposing a baseline 10% tariff on all imports and sharply escalating tariffs on countries deemed to have unfair trade practices. For those countries, tariffs of up to 50% were announced. China was hit hardest, with tariffs reaching as high as 145%. While many countries chose to limit retaliatory measures and instead focus on reaching an agreement with the US, China imposed matching tariffs of up to 125% on US products, blacklisted several American companies, and restricted exports of key materials. The latter includes rare earth metals, which are crucial in today’s world as they are vital for many technological products. In response to global backlash, Trump announced a 90-day delay on the tariff increases for most countries (excluding China), attempting to contain diplomatic fallout while maintaining a tough stance on trade imbalances. Amid further concerns that tariffs on key growth-spurring sectors such as technology and pharma could backfire, the administration announced additional reprieve by limiting tariffs on such critical goods.

​Since stepping into office in January 2025, President Donald Trump has been highly active in reshaping US domestic and foreign policies, implementing a range of executive orders with a focus on national security, the revitalisation of the economy, and immigration. While he announced potential tariffs, the pace at which he planned to impose these tariffs is surprising. In February 2025, he announced a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, citing border security and drug trafficking concerns, with Canadian energy exports facing a lower 10% tariff. However, these tariffs are currently suspended for 30 days, and it will be vital to observe whether they will be predominantly used as a tool for negotiations or are intended to be fully implemented. For Canada and Mexico, it could have devastating effects on their currency, as the Chinese Yuan declined significantly. Importantly, China is much less reliant on the US for exports than Canada or Mexico are. Trump also imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports. In retaliation, China announced tariffs on US energy and specific machinery, such as agricultural machinery and large-engine vehicles. Lastly, Trump reinstated prior tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum imports, bolstering the country’s own industry. Unlike during his first tenure, he also imposed these tariffs on allied nations.