Alternative Markets Outlook 2021
The year 2020 was dominated by Covid-19 and this is likely to continue in 2021, hopefully to a lesser degree with the vaccination programs running. Two major impacts, which can affect 2021 substantially are the effectiveness of the vaccination against certain mutations of the virus that emerge more and more. While Pfizer/ BioNTech stated that their vaccine is likely to effectively protect against the UK mutation, J&J said that their trial results do not effectively protect against the South African and Brazilian variant. The second major aspect around Covid-19 in 2021 addresses the production quantity of the vaccines and when a critical mass of immunization in countries is reached. The fight from central banks against the economic damage caused by Covid-19 is likely to continue, although not nearly with the same numbers as in 2020. Interest rates are likely to remain close to zero with a tendency of higher interest rates with a long-time horizon. Despite the great performance of gold in 2020, it underperformed since reaching its peak in August 2020, mostly remaining at the $1,850 per ounce level and in 2021 so far, it dropped below $1,700, despite frequent projections for gold of around $2,500 up to $3,000 per ounce in 2021. It remains to be seen whether gold can reach this level. Gold has seen a lot of inflows during 2020, in particular in ETFs, but has also faced redemptions for reallocation towards well-performing equities and its digital alternative Bitcoin (BTC). Another important factor for gold is whether the anticipated inflation emerges or not. Another seemingly unhealthy development is the deviation from stock prices and the real results of the economy. This development can be explained partly by the tremendous money printing in 2020, as this cash needs to be deployed somewhere and bonds with zero percent interest are no alternative anymore.

​Hedge Funds
The last two years were exceptional for hedge funds. In 2019, hedge funds achieved a return of 9%, the best return in the decade back then. 2020 was even better with an average return of approximately 17%. Figure 1 shows the returns over the last three years of the flagship funds of the top-earning managers. Across all years, there were huge deviations in their yearly performance results. In 2019, the returns fluctuated between 10% up to 60% returns. In 2020, the returns shifted in an ever more positive direction, as the lowest return was 14%, whereas the highest achieved return is 76%. In comparison, the average of our strategies returned 68% this year and Figure 2 shows a distribution of returns of our strategies. 2019 and in particular 2020 has helped the industry to be in demand again, after rough years before, as hedge funds managed to reduce the downside risks of the Covid-19 crisis but also performed well in the bull run after the initial dip. Due to the increased demand on hedge funds that emerged in 2020, it is likely that the AuM of the industry will increase quite substantially in 2021, especially if equity markets should continue to perform as well as they are doing currently. This would boost the AuM of the industry both by net inflows and by the intrinsic growth through performance of funds. The institutional demand is driven mostly by the performance in 2020 and the expected market volatility in 2021.

​Alternative Markets Review 2020
2020 will be certainly a year nobody will not forget very fast. The most notable event was certainly Covid-19 and its tremendous impact on the everybody in the entire world. From a financial perspective, there were so many exceptional phenomena that occurred as a consequence of Covid-19. Firstly, national banks have intervened in the market to an extent that was unprecedented, the FED above all. The huge interventions of the FED through quantitative easing in GFC in 2008 were next to nothing to the interventions following Covid-19. The common measures of national banks in particular adjusting interest rates was exerted quickly, which led to the interventions through other channels as described previously. Almost all industrialized countries are now facing interest rates that are negative or very close around 0%, including a yield curve inversion in the US during the pandemic. Governments have also provided huge sums of financial aids for the economy to fight Covid-19, which led to record level of governmental debt. In the US, the debt level is almost as high as during WW2, which says a lot. Low interest rates fuelled the rally of safe haven asset such as gold further, which had a great year, despite having gained already a lot in 2019 from the trade war between the US and China.

Hedge Funds
Hedge funds had a great 2020, despite the severe drawdowns in March and April. Preqin reports that the average hedge fund achieved a YTD in 2020 of 16.69%. Figure 4 shows an overview of the returns of our hedge funds across fixed income, equity, tactical trading and fund of hedge funds (FoHF) strategies. Over all categories, our average hedge fund is up 68% in 2020, largely driven by crypto hedge funds which posted stellar returns as cryptocurrencies, which will be discussed in the part. Our tactical trading strategies are up 279% in 2020, as of most of those strategies are crypto-related. The equity-based hedge funds achieved a YTD of 23.8% in 2020, which a substantial variance across the hedge funds, largest based on the strategy pursued. Fixed income-based hedge funds struggled longer in 2020, as both equity and tactical trading strategies recovered very fast. Fixed income strategies are up 6.7% in 2020. Figures 5 to 8 show the performance of the strategies compared to respective benchmarks.