Category: Stocks

Alternative Markets Update and Macro Outlook March 2020

13/3/2020

Alternative Markets Update March 2020

Since the last week in February 2020, markets across several assets plummeted. Main driver of this development is certainly the coronavirus cover-19, more specifically the increased number of infections outside China, and the response of the FED and BoE to cut interest rates by 0.5% each as a response. Furthermore, a disagreement among Russia and Saudi Arabia arose during their OPEC+ meeting about the oil price strategy, which lead to a 30% loss in oil prices. The major indices of most countries lost more than 10% and face a high volatility since the virus outbreak outside China with a WHO classification as epidemic. It is expected that the interest rates in the positive yielding countries like US, Uk, Australia and New Zealand are lowered further. Safe haven assets, such as currencies like CHF and JPY or commodities like gold continuously increased in value. Bitcoin, oftentimes referred to as digital gold, could not establish itself as safe haven asset, as it decreased substantially to $6,105 on 12th March 2020 and other crypto assets followed in a similar fashion with declines.

Macro Outlook March 2020 by Aquila Markets
The current situation is now comparable to 2008 in terms of the potential shock to the global economy. Whilst the initial shock of the virus on global supply chains, the ongoing ramifications are significant. In the GFC, within a few short weeks, Lehman went bust, Banks merged, AIG was bailed out amongst many other companies. Rates were slashed globally. The world “survived”. But the policy responses – QE in waves in the US , austerity in Europe, the rise of China , US monetary policy, has defined the past decade. But, because failure was banned and assets supported, we have fuelled yet another credit driven boom especially in the US.

Alternative Markets Update H1 2019

30/7/2019

Alternative Markets Update H1 2019

Hedge Funds
After the difficulties for hedge funds in 2018, 2019 started strong, despite the current uncertainties, such as the Brexit, the European elections and the trade war. Only in May, there were some difficulties. This short downturn was offset and more than compensated in June, which yielded extraordinary results. Our best performing strategy was the cryptocurrency strategy, followed by US equity disruptive technology and US equity high conviction. The best performing asset class was tactical trading, which achieved a 30.78% YTD, as shown in figure 1. Furthermore, all strategies had positive return in H1 2019.

Figure 1: Overview of Performance of Different Hedge Fund Strategies: June 2019, Source: Stone Mountain Capital Research

Alternative Markets Update July 2019

12/7/2019

Alternative Markets Update July 2019

Hedge funds have achieved their best half year within the last decade, despite the controversies about hedge funds in the last year. Hedge funds overall have gained 5.7% since January 2019. Especially the month June was profitable, as hedge fund managers achieved a performance of 1.82%, which originates from a strong equity market. As of the beginning of July, only the long volatility strategy yielded negative returns, while the equity long bias strategy realized the highest gain with 10.56% in 2019 as per the Eurekahedge report below.

Figure 1: Hedge Fund Strategy Return Map, Source: Eurekahedge July 2019

Alternative Markets Update - Macro And Political Outlook June 2019

13/6/2019

Alternative Markets Update June 2019

June started in a more dynamic fashion for hedges funds are already recouped May’s losses. The anticipation of an interest rate cut this year as a result of Fed’s announcements resulted to a strong bounce back for equity markets. Equity hedge strategies profited the most during the first weeks of June, a month that so far is characterised by the trade war discussions and further tariff plans from US. Macro and CTA strategies had their bets right so far this month and they are waiting to capitalise on future volatility events. Bitcoin’s momentum slowed down in June and its price has receded from $8,740 to $7,900, reaching a market cap of $140bn. Ethereum had also a

slightly negative month so far and is keep following the same pattern as bitcoin.

Macro and Political Outlook June 2019 MacroEagle

Source: MacroEagle

Alternative Markets Update Q1 2019 - Macro and Political Outlook April 2019

16/4/2019

Alternative Markets Update Q1 2019

After a rather disappointing last year, hedge funds bounced back and are enjoying their strongest quarter since 2006 according to data from HFR, with macro and CTA strategies leading the race so far with gains driven from their fixed income exposure. Private equity is also enjoying a good first quarter with growth equity strategies raising almost $25bn and the number of deals has also increased compared to the last months of last year. Private debt fundraising on the other hand has slowed down, with larger firms claiming the largest part of the pie and creating a rather concentrated industry with high level of dry powder and uncertainty due

to geopolitical reasons. Bitcoin and Ethereum enjoyed a strong rally during the first quarter of 2019, surpassing $5,000 and $160 respectively.

Macro and Political Outlook April 2019 MacroEagle

Source: MacroEagle

<<Previous

Alternative Markets Update and Macro Outlook March 2020

Alternative Markets Update H1 2019

Alternative Markets Update July 2019

Alternative Markets Update - Macro And Political Outlook June 2019

Alternative Markets Update Q1 2019 - Macro and Political Outlook April 2019

Archives

Categories