September PREVIEW by Macro Eagle
Famously, September is the cruellest month for equity markets, with the Dow down 41/70 times since 1950. Apart from the ongoing issues mentioned above the key events in the month ahead are: Treasury issuance and unemployment figures this week. ECB and Russian regional elections next week. New Japanese PM, TikTok deadline and FOMC during the 3rd week. Italian election during the fourth week. And the first US presidential debate in the last week. All while capital markets get hit by an avalanche of IPOs (Airbnb, Ant Financial, DoorDash, etc.). And don’t forget NATURE. In August we got fires and blackouts in California, hurricanes hitting the Gulf (Laura and Marco), the last ice shelf in Canada’s Artic breaking up and China/North Korea being hit by floods. But it is September when the hurricane season normally peaks.
Figure 2: Monthly Returns of the Last 12 Months and the Worst Month of the Financial Crisis in 2008, Source: Eurekahedge, April 2020
Figure 3: Performance of Stone Mountain Capital Indices Compared to its Benchmarks in Q1 2020, Source: Stone Mountain Capital Research, April 2020
Table 1: Performance of Stone Mountain Capital Indices Compared to its Benchmarks in Q1 2020, Source: Stone Mountain Capital Research, April 2020