​Gold has risen sharply in recent weeks, climbing past $4,000 per ounce and gaining more than 50% since the start of the year, as shown in Figure 1. The rally accelerated after September as investors reacted to a mix of geopolitical and macroeconomic developments. Prices surged as tensions in the Middle East intensified, driving safe-haven demand, but gold briefly lost momentum once a peace deal was reached, reducing immediate global uncertainty. However, expectations of imminent interest rate cuts and renewed tensions between the United States and China over rare earth minerals and retaliatory tariffs quickly offset that effect. Strong central bank purchases, continued ETF inflows, and a softer dollar have added further support, pushing gold to record levels and making it one of the top-performing assets of 2025 so far.

​According to Hedge Fund Research (HFR), the global hedge fund industry’s assets under management (AuM) surged to a record $4.74 trillion at the end of Q2 2025, the highest level ever recorded. The quarter was marked by the strongest capital inflows in more than a decade, with $24.8 billion added in Q2 alone and $37.3 billion for the first half—making it the best H1 result since 2015. Performance-based gains contributed an additional $188 billion in Q2, the largest return-on-risk advance since early 2021, underscoring the sector’s strong rebound. By strategy, Equity Hedge and Event-Driven funds each surpassed $1.3 trillion in assets, while Relative Value Arbitrage climbed to $1.28 trillion, highlighting both broad investor demand and differentiated opportunity sets within the industry. As shown in Figure 1, hedge funds have return steady returns across nearly all strategies. Our Equity hedge funds returned above 10% compared to 6.8% of comparable benchmarks. Similarly, our Cryptocurrency hedge funds outperformed the benchmark by nearly 4% with YTD of 6.5%. Fixed Income strategies yielded steady 5-6% with comparable results for Fund of Hedge Funds. Only Tactical Trading strategies faced a difficult year with an ever-changing financial environment.

​So far, 2025 has been shaped by sharp swings in financial markets, driven by geopolitical shocks, shifting monetary policy expectations, and evolving macroeconomic conditions. The year began with strong risk appetite, fuelled by optimism over disinflation and AI-led corporate growth, but momentum faltered in April when the US announced sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs, reigniting fears of a global trade war. Equity markets corrected sharply before stabilising in early summer, supported by resilient corporate earnings and easing volatility. Inflation has proven stickier than expected in most major economies, prompting central banks, especially the Fed and the BoE, to delay or temper rate-cut expectations. The US dollar weakened in the first half of the year, boosting gold prices to multi-year highs as investors sought safe-haven assets. Overall, 2025 has presented a complex mix of resilience and risk, leaving investors to navigate an unusually uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop.
Inflation trends in 2025 have underscored the challenge facing central banks in the United States, the Euro Area, and the United Kingdom, with price pressures proving more persistent than policymakers had anticipated. In the US, headline CPI has eased from its 2022 and 2023 peaks but remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. While core inflation has been slower to decline, driven by stubborn services and shelter costs. The Euro Area has seen a similar pattern, with headline inflation moderating on the back of lower energy prices but core readings staying elevated due to wage growth and resilient domestic demand. The UK has faced the stickiest inflation among the three, with both headline and core measures remaining well above target despite easing commodity costs—reflecting underlying pressures in the labour market and housing sector. As shown in Figure 1, inflation has come down substantially since 2023, the Euro Area is the only geography of the three that has maintained an inflation rate at or below 2% for multiple months. In contrast, the UK’s inflation rate has begun to soar again and remains well above 3% in recent months.
Interest rate policy has reflected these dynamics, with the Fed and the BoE both delaying widely expected rate cuts as inflation progress slowed in the first half of the year. The Fed has maintained rates at close to their multi-year highs, emphasising the need for sustained evidence of disinflation before easing. The BoE has lowered its interest rates more steadily in 2025 than the US, but the country has to balance cuts with currently rising inflation. In contrast, the European Central Bank has begun to signal a cautious easing path, supported by weaker growth data and a more pronounced decline in headline inflation across the bloc. Elsewhere, Japan’s policy shift away from ultra-loose conditions has stood in sharp contrast, underscoring the divergence in global monetary stances and adding a further layer of complexity to capital flows and currency markets in 2025.

​The cryptocurrency market in 2025 has experienced a dynamic and volatile trajectory, shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty, evolving regulation, and technological advancements. The year began with moderate gains, driven by institutional inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum amid expectations of monetary policy easing in the second half of the year. Layer-2 networks on Ethereum gained traction, while Solana's developer ecosystem expanded significantly. However, momentum fluctuated due to intermittent risk-off sentiment tied to the broader equity downturn and policy signals from central banks. In the past two weeks, the market has sharply rebounded, fuelled by several converging catalysts. Bitcoin broke through $100,000 again, propelled by robust on-chain activity and renewed ETF inflows. Ethereum followed, with strong gas fee revenue and staking metrics supporting its performance despite scaling debates post-Pectra. Across altcoins, Layer-1 and Layer-2 tokens rallied on surging TVL and revived retail interest, while Solana registered a noticeable increase in decentralised exchange volume and stablecoin transfers. Investor sentiment improved markedly after U.S. inflation data came in below expectations, reinforcing Fed rate-cut bets. In parallel, geopolitical tensions showed signs of stabilising, reducing systemic risk premiums in crypto markets. A more detailed review and outlook on the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape is provided further below from Macro Eagle. Since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin gained 13%, while many altcoins are still in the red. Ethereum and Solana are down around 20% this year, but they have recovered substantially from their lows this year.