​High inflation in the past years has led to strong interventions by central banks. Consequentially, interest rates were increased to levels last seen during the global financial crisis in 2007/08. Inflation has since declined substantially and has reached “manageable” levels. This development led to positive real rates in most economies and led to the question of when central banks would start to lower interest rates. This is especially the case, as interest rates remain at levels set in the summer of 2023 with no movement since then. In March 2024, the Swiss National Bank was the first central bank of the G7 currencies that lowered their interest rates. Interest rates in Switzerland declined from 1.75% to 1.5%. While this is a positive signal for the anticipated rate cuts throughout 2024, it needs to be stated that Switzerland was an exception over the past years. Most Western countries saw inflation rise close to 10% or above. In contrast, Switzerland’s inflation reached a height of only 3.4%. Most likely dates for rate cuts in the remaining economies are expected around June and July 2024 based on the current market sentiment. Inflation in the US, UK, and Eurozone remain relatively sticky around the 3% to 4% mark. It is likely that these central banks want to see a further declining trend in inflation ahead interest cuts. Figure 1 summarizes the development in interest rates and inflation from the beginning of January 2023 to March 2024.

​The cryptocurrency market is maintaining the strong momentum it gained at the beginning of the year. Bitcoin (BTC) is spearheading the lead in the space. BTC soared to above $73k as of the time of writing and surpassed its previous high of $68k achieved back in 2021. To date, BTC is up 70% in 2024. The most notable reasons for the strong performance are the spot BTC ETF approval and the subsequent money flowing into BTC. For example, BlackRock now owns more than $10bn in BTC. Another key driver is the upcoming Bitcoin Halving that is anticipated to occur in mid-April 2024. Historically, this event starts the strongest bull run in the BTC cycle. Thus far, BTC was among the best-performing crypto assets in 2024, but Ethereum (ETH) managed to overtake BTC over the past few days and gained 78% in 2024. This development is also akin to prior cycles, when BTC typically initiates the bull run, while other tokens follow BTC and post stronger gains further in the bull run. However, unlike BTC, ETH has not managed to surpass its previous high of nearly $4.9k from 2021. Most recently, ETH surpassed the $4k for the first time since 2021. Figure 1 shows the price development of BTC and ETH from the end of 2022 to March 2024 alongside each token's previous high. Corresponding to these trends is the development of the crypto market capitalization. With the major currencies being close to or above their previous highs, the total cryptocurrency market cap is also close to a new record high. As of the time of writing, the crypto market cap is above $2.7tn, which is slightly lower than its previous high of $2.8tn.

Cryptocurrencies started phenomenally in the year 2024. To date, Bitcoin (BTC) is up almost 50% in 2024 after soaring around 160% in 2023 already. On 28th February 2024, BTC managed to surpass the $60k mark and peaked at nearly $64k. With the Halving on the horizon, BTC will likely surpass its previous record high of $68k set in November 2021. Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins are following the price development of BTC after the most recent hype around the BTC ETF approval showed a relatively small impact on other coins. ETH is also up almost 50% in 2024, at the time of writing. ETH is currently trading at $3,385, levels last seen in early 2022. While BTC is already relatively close to its record high from 2021, ETH is still quite far away from its record high of $4.8k from November 2021. The growth of Solana (SOL) has slowed in 2024, gaining only 16%. Nonetheless, the current level of $118 was last seen in early 2022, when the token crashed substantially amid the general crypto crash and reliability issues of the network. Although the growth over the past two months has not been exceptional, this is more than compensated by the 10x return in 2023. While BTC and ETH show a tendency for a new record level soon, SOL still needs to grow substantially to overtake its previous record high of $260 in November 2021. Figure 1 shows the price development of the three coins from the end of 2021 to February 2024. The most recent surge in prices also resulted in the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rising above $2tn for the first time since early 2022. Currently, the market cap of the industry lies at $2.33tn.
Cryptocurrencies started phenomenally in the year 2024. To date, Bitcoin (BTC) is up almost 50% in 2024 after soaring around 160% in 2023 already. On 28th February 2024, BTC managed to surpass the $60k mark and peaked at nearly $64k. With the Halving on the horizon, BTC will likely surpass its previous record high of $68k set in November 2021. Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins are following the price development of BTC after the most recent hype around the BTC ETF approval showed a relatively small impact on other coins. ETH is also up almost 50% in 2024, at the time of writing. ETH is currently trading at $3,385, levels last seen in early 2022. While BTC is already relatively close to its record high from 2021, ETH is still quite far away from its record high of $4.8k from November 2021. The growth of Solana (SOL) has slowed in 2024, gaining only 16%. Nonetheless, the current level of $118 was last seen in early 2022, when the token crashed substantially amid the general crypto crash and reliability issues of the network. Although the growth over the past two months has not been exceptional, this is more than compensated by the 10x return in 2023. While BTC and ETH show a tendency for a new record level soon, SOL still needs to grow substantially to overtake its previous record high of $260 in November 2021. Figure 1 shows the price development of the three coins from the end of 2021 to February 2024. The most recent surge in prices also resulted in the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rising above $2tn for the first time since early 2022. Currently, the market cap of the industry lies at $2.33tn.