​In the months leading up to 13th June 2025, tensions between Iran and Israel had escalated significantly following a series of covert operations, cyberattacks, and proxy engagements across the region, particularly in Syria and Lebanon. Both nations exchanged sharp rhetoric and low-intensity military actions, raising fears of a broader regional conflict. On 13th June, this simmering confrontation erupted into open hostilities when Israel launched a major airstrike, prompting a wave of retaliatory missile attacks by Iran. The conflict quickly spread, with several days of intense cross-border fire, targeting military and infrastructure assets. Despite growing international concern, the United States initially refrained from direct involvement, instead calling for restraint. However, on 21st June 2025, the United States launched a targeted strike on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow, aiming to significantly disrupt Iran’s enrichment capabilities. The operation marked a sharp escalation and drew immediate condemnation from Tehran. In response, Iran launched a missile and drone barrage at the US base in Qatar, causing minor infrastructure damage but no casualties. Days later, President Trump publicly called for a ceasefire, framing the US action as a deterrent rather than the beginning of a broader conflict. Since then, hostilities have subsided, though tensions in the region remain elevated and the risk of renewed confrontation persists.

​The cryptocurrency market in 2025 has experienced a dynamic and volatile trajectory, shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty, evolving regulation, and technological advancements. The year began with moderate gains, driven by institutional inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum amid expectations of monetary policy easing in the second half of the year. Layer-2 networks on Ethereum gained traction, while Solana's developer ecosystem expanded significantly. However, momentum fluctuated due to intermittent risk-off sentiment tied to the broader equity downturn and policy signals from central banks. In the past two weeks, the market has sharply rebounded, fuelled by several converging catalysts. Bitcoin broke through $100,000 again, propelled by robust on-chain activity and renewed ETF inflows. Ethereum followed, with strong gas fee revenue and staking metrics supporting its performance despite scaling debates post-Pectra. Across altcoins, Layer-1 and Layer-2 tokens rallied on surging TVL and revived retail interest, while Solana registered a noticeable increase in decentralised exchange volume and stablecoin transfers. Investor sentiment improved markedly after U.S. inflation data came in below expectations, reinforcing Fed rate-cut bets. In parallel, geopolitical tensions showed signs of stabilising, reducing systemic risk premiums in crypto markets. A more detailed review and outlook on the macroeconomic and geopolitical landscape is provided further below from Macro Eagle. Since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin gained 13%, while many altcoins are still in the red. Ethereum and Solana are down around 20% this year, but they have recovered substantially from their lows this year.

​Since President Trump announced a pause on tariffs in early April 2025, equity markets have rallied significantly. As shown in Figure 1, the S&P 500 rallied by more than 15% in the past five weeks and closed last week with a positive performance in 2025. Despite this rally, market participants remain hesitant, as uncertainties regarding the long-term effects of tariff policies linger. Goldman Sachs, while acknowledging the positive momentum, still projects a significant chance of recession, having recently reduced their recession probability from 45% to 35% following the tariff pause and recent trade developments.

​In early April 2025, President Trump reignited trade tensions with sweeping tariffs - 10% on all imports and up to 50% for countries with "unfair" practices, hitting China hardest at 145%. China retaliated with up to 125% tariffs, blacklisting US firms and restricting exports of rare earths. Facing global backlash, Trump announced a 90-day delay for most countries (excluding China) and eased tariffs on key sectors like tech and pharma. Markets, initially hopeful over pro-business policies, turned volatile as concerns over aggressive trade moves mounted. The VIX spiked to 60 on Liberation Day - levels not seen since 2008 and 2020. Upon the delay of the tariff implementation, volatility eased quickly, as shown in Figure 1. Volatility levels have dropped to below 25, which is only slightly elevated compared to historical levels.