ALternative Market Outlook h2 2020

YTD Price Development in US Equities, US 10Y Yields, USD and Gold, Source: MacroEagle, August 2020

AUGUST PREVIEW. The most exciting week this month is clearly the first. We get to know Biden’s pick for VP (more below); I do expect the ECJ’s answer to the German Constitutional Court and we will see the next tranche of the US relief package agreed before Congress breaks for its summer recess. In the second week, as usual, we get a lot of economic and sentiment data – the rate of change being more important than the number itself. As for the last two weeks, the main calendar focus will be the virtual Central Bank symposium at Jackson Hole. Spoiler alert: August has a real bad reputation for nasty equity sell-offs. Increased US-China tension (on the back of the US presidential campaign) is probably my No1 pick for “possible trigger” (more below).

Important Events in August 2020, Source: MacroEagle, August 2020

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RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE VOL. 137 August 2020 Alternative Markets Outlook H2 2020 The question in markets in H2 2020 is whether a Covid-19 vaccine is developed and can be distributed or, in case there is no vaccine this year, or how severe a second wave will impact the economy. It is expected that a second wave will hit in autumn, as temperatures fall again and it is mixed with the regular flu cycle. At this point, it is no question of “if there is a second wave”, but rather when? Spain, which was hit severely alongside Italy in March 2020, has seen a substantial surge in cases again and may have entered a second outbreak already. For the economy, it is crucial that the second wave will not cause lockdowns again, as most countries have exhausted the fiscal and monetary resources in early 2020. A positive point is that we had some experience with the virus now and hospitals are prepared for such a case, compared to when the virus emerged at the beginning of 2020. Currently, the number of infections has risen to above 20 million globally and it is expected to double in six weeks. Mostly North and South America are seeing steep increases in daily infections, with a few exemptions such as Canada, Mexico. Another major event happening in H2 2020 is the US election in November. Joe Biden announced his vice president nominee, senator Kamara Harris. Furthermore, the trade war between the US and China is likely to continue in 2020 and it is unpredictable what moves will be next. Especially with the relatively ad-hoc response from Trump to basically ban TikTok and WeChat in the US, due to national security concerns. Consequently, ByteDance, the owner of TikTok, will likely sell its operations in the US, with Microsoft being its likeliest buyer as of now. The law also targets Tencent’s WeChat, for which there is no current response from Tencent’s side. Going forward in the current market environment, interest rates will continue to tumble around the zero percent mark. Figure 1 shows the US mortgage base rates at the beginning of August 2020 compared to last year. The year-on-year percentage shows the impact that the virus had on the economy and the means necessary to stabilize the economy. Alongside interest rate reductions, central banks have also pumped trillions of dollars into the financial market to mitigate the steep drop in equities back in March 2020. Further injections have continued relatively steady over H1 2020 so far, although being significantly lower than the initial injections. Consequentially, equities have mostly bounced back strongly. Tech stocks have profited. The fact that equities are mostly up for the year strongly deviates from the situation the economy is currently in with high unemployment and Covid-19 spreading further. Tech stocks are increasingly reaching levels similar to the pre-dot-com bubble. In H2, it will be interesting to see in which way equities are headed. Industries that have been hit hard by the crisis are likely to increase, whereas for industries that have hugely benefited from the crisis, it is difficult to predict whether they continue their upward trend or if there will price correction, and if so, how severe it will be. Going back to the central banks’ money printing, inflation fears drives prices of safe haven assets upwards. Gold has just reached its all-time high a few days ago and was trading at almost $2100 per ounce, before experiencing its highest daily loss in the last seven years on August 11th, as US yields rose. Figure 2 shows the gold price development within the six months. Gold is currently at $1,936 per ounce (12th August 2020). During the crisis in H1, gold’s target price was continuously increased and is currently at $3000 per ounce from BOML. It is questionable, whether such a level can be reached, but it is almost certainly rising in the near futures given the current market circumstances. Silver has increased in value substantially in July 2020. Figure 3 shows silver’s price during the last six months. In July 2020, it rose from about $18 per ounce to $25, which was the best month silver ever had. The gold silver ratio has been at a historic high during the pandemic and fell back to a slightly above average value of July. In August, its bull run continued, but it dropped back on August 11th to about $25 per ounce. Silver will likely increase in value over time similar to gold, but with more upward potential, as silver’s bull run just started and gold is rising continuously for over a year now. Figure 1: Adjustable Mortgage Base Rates in the US Now in Comparison to Last Year, Source: Barron’s, August 2020 Figure 2: Gold Price Development of the Last 6 Months, Source: World Gold Council, August 2020 Figure 3: Silver Price Development of the Last 6 Months, Source: Silverprice, August 2020 Hedge Funds Hedge funds are likely to continue, as they have since May 2020. The industry is slowly bouncing back to their pre-crisis level. There are of course differences regarding the strategies of hedge funds, with equity hedge funds bouncing back faster than most. CTAs have generally done fairly well during the crisis and had more stable returns than equity strategies, while fixed income strategies are suffering from the low interest rates environment. So far, the major cause of the virus in the alternatives market is acceleration of existing trends, when setting aside the direct impact of work from home and the initial slow down caused in March 2020. It is expected that hedge funds across all strategies will go up slightly, given the economic environment stays relatively stable and is recovering further. The AuM will remain approximately at or slightly above $3.3tn in 2020 going forward, as the reduction in AuM caused by the losses of hedge funds and the AuM will rise in a recovery period. On the opposite side however, Covid-19 has accelerated trends so far and for hedge funds this implies more redemptions than subscriptions, which will result in a decreased AuM. Figure 4 and 5 show our SMC indices in comparison to other benchmark indices. Further details are found in the table below the outlook of H2 2020. Figure 4: Performance of Stone Mountain Capital Indices Compared with Benchmarks, Source: Stone Mountain Capital Research, July 2020 Figure 5: Performance of Stone Mountain Capital Indices Compared with Benchmarks, Source: Stone Mountain Capital Research, July 2020 Cryptocurrencies / Blockchain Cryptocurrencies have done exceptionally well in 2020 so far. Bitcoin (BTC) started at approximately $6,000 in the year 2020, dropped to around $4,000 in the cross-asset sell off when the crisis started in March. BTC has quickly offset its losses and continued to rally upwards and has hit the $12,000 mark earlier in August for the first time since summer 2019. Figure 6 shows the price of BTC in USD from January 2019 to August 12th, 2020. There are several reasons for BTC’s gain this year. Firstly, BTC is often referred to as digital gold, as its quantity is capped at 21m. Its purpose is similar to gold as an inflation hedge. Secondly, the preconditions for institutional investors are increasing continuously. For this reason, it is more and more seen as a real asset class instead of a speculation asset. Derivative markets on such assets are a huge step forward for the broader usage of BTC. Derivatives on BTC, mostly futures, were available for quite some time now, but the activity in these markets grows strongly with frequent new record volumes. Thirdly, BTC’s volatility is low with currently being at 40% annualized volatility compared to historic average, despite its current high price. This is the lowest volatility BTC has ever experienced, while being above $10k, implying that there is more confidence in the asset. The annualized volatility of BTC since 2012 is shown in Figure 7. BTC is still the main driver for other cryptocurrencies. Ethereum (ETH)  performed the best among the established cryptocurrencies in the market, which was partly due to ETH’s low levels compared to its highs in 2017, especially compared to much smaller deviation from where BTC is now and where it was at its peak in 2017. ETH’s performance from January 2020 until August 12th, 2020 is shown in Figure 8. ETH’s return is almost triple BTC’s return in 2020. ETH also benefited from the huge surge in DeFi (decentralized finance), which grew from a market cap of $2bn to $9bn in July alone. The situation of cryptocurrencies, especially BTC, is likely to evolve similar to the outlook of gold. For ETH, it is likely to evolve similar as it has as well, but DeFi could play a vital role in its further development. Figure 6: Price and Market Capitalization of BTC from January 2019 to August 12th, 2020, Source: CoinMarketCap, August 2020 Figure 7: Volatility of Bitcoin from 2012 to 2020, Source: Kraken, August 2020 Figure 8: Price and Market Capitalization of ETH from January 2020 to August 12th, 2020, Source: CoinMarketCap, August 2020 Private Equity The industry has experienced a substantial slowdown in fundraising, with H1 just raising slightly more than what was raised in Q4 2019 and less funds reached their targeted size. Fundraising and investments from the fund’s side are both likely to decrease going forward, as meeting in person will be more difficult and having no personal meeting can be a hinderance for capital commitments. Another factor is how the results turn out the industry achieved in H1, which are not available as of now, as the industry data has a substantial time lag. It will be interesting to see how the record dry powder assembled (mostly) last year will be invested or whether is it held back until the environment stabilizes further. With regards to difficulties in fundraising, it seems unavoidable that the industry will face a consolidation wave. There are two major factors with one being the mentioned difficulties to raise capital, especially for newly emerging funds. Well established funds have the luxury that their reputation and past success may be less of a hinderance for investors to commit capital without in-person meetings. Moreover, well established funds are likely to sit on more dry powder; thus, being more resilient than new funds.   Private Debt Private debt funds were hit badly by the crisis. Figure 9 shows the global fundraising activity in the private debt market. As of the end of H1 2020 only $48bn were raised, whereas in 2019 a total of almost $150bn was raised. The number of funds seeking capital dropped even more, as there are only 53 funds looking for capital commitments compared to 160 in 2019. Figure 10 shows the historical dry powder in the industry as well as the composition of last years dry powder. The total amount of dry powder was lower than its previous year for the first time since 2008. The composition of the currently available dry powder is evenly split among the years 2017, 2018, 2019 and years prior to 2017. The trend of consolidation in a crisis also affects the private debt industry. There has been a major shift from small capital commitments (below $50m), whose number of deals also dropped significantly, towards large investments (above $600m). This is a strong indication of a shift towards fewer and most likely bigger funds. Another sign that well-established funds are not experiencing major issues is that Apollo launched a special situations fund worth $1.75bn and reached its target in eight weeks. Direct lending still raised more than any other strategy with $18.2bn but fell back to 2015 levels. In total, there were only 17 vehicles raising this capital, averaging in more than one billion for every vehicle, which enhances the credibility in the consolidation trend even further. On the cost of direct lending, certain strategies have gained much more appeal than before the crisis, such as special situation and distressed debt. Figure 9: Global Private Debt Fundraising from 2006 until June 2020, Source: Pitchbook, August 2020 Figure 10: Global Private Debt Dry Powder from 2006 until September 2019, Source: Pitchbook, August 2020 Real Estate In the real estate industry, it is expected that the established trends continue. In comparison to other alternative asset classes, these trends will continue stronger. There is a general shift from retail towards industrial real estate, which has been accelerated tremendously by the e-commerce business during the crisis. This will almost certainly continue, regardless of whether a vaccination will be found soon. Covid-19 is likely to only affect the speed of this shift, but not its direction. Similar arguments can be made for multi-family sector, as people had to stay at home and work remotely. Going forward, it is expected that home office will be used more frequently. Nevertheless, this trend is not nearly as strong as the shift from retail towards industrial real estate. Similar to other alternative asset classes, the number of funds raising capital and deal flow has collapsed in H1 2020. Within the industry, it is expected that those numbers will bounce back slowly. Fundraising itself is not in a bad position, as it is on similar levels as in 2016 and 2017, which is slightly below 2018 and 2019. However, the capital raised flows into much fewer funds, implying a consolidation wave as well with the reasoning as mentioned in private equity. Macro and Political Outlook July 2020 by Macro Eagle Welcome to AUGUST. 1 – JULY REVIEW. It wasn’t the most exciting of months in terms of markets. The two main drivers are still “Covid” (Health, BigTech, WFH) and “Stimulus” (negative real rates): Nasdaq up 20% YTD (S&P back in positive territory) and US real rates negative (nominal rates down, inflation expectations up). That in turn pushed Gold up (+30% YTD) and the US Dollar down. Ahh … and paycheck-stimulus plus bored Day-Traders gives you fire-works like Kodak (up 1,500% at one point after getting government loan). All very rational short-term, although not sustainable medium-term. As I mentioned last time: “The Melt-Up on Wall Street will cause a Melt-Down on Main Street”. Geopolitics (China-US) and domestic politics (Macron getting trounced in local elections and changing his PM; the EU cutting a Recovery Deal) were somewhat noticed but playing second fiddle to Covid/Stimulus. Figure 11: Review of Major Events in July 2020 and the Returns of the S&P 500, Source: MacroEagle, August 2020 Figure 12: YTD Price Development in US Equtieis, US 10Y Yields, USD and Gold, Source: MacroEagle, August 2020 2 – AUGUST PREVIEW. The most exciting week this month is clearly the first. We get to know Biden’s pick for VP (more below); I do expect the ECJ’s answer to the German Constitutional Court and we will see the next tranche of the US relief package agreed before Congress breaks for its summer recess. In the second week, as usual, we get a lot of economic and sentiment data – the rate of change being more important than the number itself. As for the last two weeks, the main calendar focus will be the virtual Central Bank symposium at Jackson Hole. Spoiler alert: August has a real bad reputation for nasty equity sell-offs. Increased US-China tension (on the back of the US presidential campaign) is probably my No1 pick for “possible trigger” (more below). Figure 13: Important Events in August 2020, Source: MacroEagle, August 2020 3 – ON COVID. Yes, infection numbers are again increasing and a second wave in the autumn is likely. BUT: developed markets are much better prepared so healthcare systems are less likely to be overwhelmed and therapies and vaccines are on the way (180 vaccines are in development, 142 in pre-clinical evaluation and 4 in Phase-3 testing) – with Russia claiming to have one by October. Hence, I’m not too worried. In fact, you need to start asking yourself what a vaccine will mean for markets: less stimulus for Wall Street = yields up/equities down? Will less risk of infection lead to a resurge of protests on Main Street as lots of angry people out there? Or think beyond Covid. Which disease comes next? With population growth you would logically expect an increase in zoonotic transmissions and hence new diseases (as we have indeed seen this century – see below). It is probably reasonable to assume that over the coming decade we will get a lot of short-term “mini panics” and an increasingly strong State (the private sector is good delivering efficiency, not so much on resilience). Various investment implications here – but I leave that for another day. Figure 14: Overview of Viruses and their Related Diseases in this Century, Source: MacroEagle 4 – US ELECTION. The betting market is currently answering all the key questions with a 60% probability: Who will win the presidency? (Biden). Who will be his VP? (Kamala Harris). Who will win the Senate? (Democrats). While Trump is trying to exploit the same divisions that worked last time, the Democrats are playing it smart: with Joe’s age painfully apparent they portray him as grandfatherly, approachable, good-hearted and likeable (very much unlike Hillary). And Trump doesn’t seem to know how to deal with that. In fact, the Covid-conditioned low-visibility campaign allows Biden to be different things to different people (“Irish Joe” to the working class, “Obama’s buddy” to the black voters, “Not Trump” to most Democrats, etc). So, I do expect him to keep his lead, even during the debates (September/October), where I expect him to be mono-syllabic and let Trump defeat himself. As for August, the most important news will be the name of the Democratic VP-nominee, as that person will most likely be the power-behind-the-throne. By September it will be interesting to see how Trump/Mnuchin deploy the vast amount of cash accumulating in the US Treasury General Account – which I would be very surprised if it doesn’t get deployed tactically. Figure 15: Results of Polls regarding the Election and Most Likely VP Nominees, Source: MacroEagle & PredictIT, August 2020 5 – US/CHINA ESCALATION. You must have been pretty busy to miss the sharp deterioration in US-China relations during July. To pick a few: Pompeo says the White House is considering banning TikTok (July 6th), FBI director Wray accuses China of seeking to become “the world’s only superpower by any means necessary” (July 7th); Pompeo declares Chinas’ South China Sea claims as “completely unlawful” (July 13th); Trump signs the HK Autonomy Act (July 14th); Attorney General Barr charges Hollywood and BigTech with being “pawns of Chinese influence” (July 17th); the DoJ charges two Chinese men with Covid-research-spying (July 21st);  Trump closes China’s consulate in Houston (July 22nd); Pompeo declares that “securing our freedoms from the CCP is the mission of our time” (July 23rd) and China retaliates with the closure of the US consulate in Chengdu (July 24th). Maybe this is US-election fever, maybe this is US hawks making sure a Biden presidency can’t change course (which he wouldn’t anyways, as China-bashing is now a bipartisan sport). Who knows. What I find more interesting is how little the market cares. Taiwan’s main semiconductor company (TSMC) briefly became the 10th most valuable company in the world when Intel suggested it might outsource its own production (July 24th) and the Taiwan Dollar ranks among the best performing currencies globally (see below). Odd. I certainly wouldn’t rule out some fireworks in the South China Sea. The India-border-clash and the HK-security-law showed that Beijing is trigger-happy and PM Li Keqiang omitted the word “peaceful” in reference to reunification with Taiwan in this year’s annual party report. Long Yen anyone? Figure 16: Comparison of Percentage YTD of Currencies vs. USD, Source: MacroEagle, August 2020 6 – OTHER GEOPOL HOTSPOTS. I have my eyes on three countries: Russia, Iran and Turkey. In Russia, despite claims that the plebiscite (July 1st) was approved by 78% (allowing Putin to stay beyond 2024), there has been a significant outbreak of local protests in the Far Eastern region of Khabarovsk (since July 11th), which adds to the mass protests last year and. One wonders what Putin might do to reboot his popularity. Historical precedent points to strongman-action (Chechnya 2000, Crimea 2014, Syria 2016). Keep an eye on the Belarus election (Aug 9th).  In Iran, there have been reports of a series of “mysterious” explosions at important nuclear facilities (July 2nd), followed by various fires at Bushehr port the week after.  Some wonder aloud if this is Israel or Saudis taking pre-emptive action, mindful that Trump may not be around for too long and worrying that Biden might re-instate the JCPOA. Long oil. Turkey. The country is under financial stress (too much USD liabilities in the financial system) and Erdogan is in a political corner (he lost last year’s local elections and many former allies have turned against him). Most likely to please his nationalist coalition partners, military engagements have been stepped up in Syria, Iraq and Libya (almost always on the opposite side of Russia). The most recent escalation happened on July 24th (while I was in Greece): the entire Greek Armed Forces were on high alert because Erdogan had threatened to start oil & gas drilling in a contested area in the South Agean. Only a phone call by Merkel got the NATO “partners” (yeah, right) to cool down. Worth keeping an eye on that part of the Mediterranean. 7 – BRITAIN. I have been on a few CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership – horrible name, I know) virtual meetings recently and surprised by how receptive Canada, Singapore, Japan and Australia are for Britain to join. I leave it to you to study the CPTPP (aka TPP11), but it is big and I do think there is a good chance that Britain will join. Add the odd chance that, if Biden wins, the US might (re-) join as well – and you have a quite significant economic club. My (contrarian) GBP-long has done very well recently and I’m sticking to it. In fact, I’m adding. Figure 17: Trans-Pacific Partnership, Source: MacroEagle, August 2020 8 – PORTFOLIO. My directional views and leitmotiv (“liquid and nimble”) remain unchanged. In fact, given August’s reputation for nasty surprises – I’m even more cautious. Although the Fed/Treasury put are keeping me net long. Anyways, some other positions are consensus: long gold; long steepeners; long credit with Central Banks; long Green Deal; long Infrastructure; long rural real estate; long Euros via options. Others are contrarian: long oil; long GBP; long USD FX vol; long inflation; TWD short. And small allocation for fun or tactical: switched some gold into silver (the latter just had its second biggest monthly gain on record); long Bitcoin, long select EM carry. The data I continue to watch like a hawk is: US consumer sentiment (especially since its recent surprise to the downside), US real rates (especially any hint of correlation-break with equities or govies) and high-frequency economic data (try the “NY Fed’s Weekly Economic Index” if you can’t be bothered with individual data like Weekly Unemployment Claims). Have a great AUGUST … and MAY THE MARKET BE WITH YOU. Bobby   The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, Stone Mountain Capital LTD. Readers should refer to the Disclaimer. Bobby Vedral MacroEagle E : i[email protected] M : +447899996595 Bobby is a macro-political analyst who runs his own fund MacroEagle. He is also the UK representative of the German Economic Council (Wirtschaftsrat Deutschland) focused on the German-British relationship post-Brexit. Bobby left Goldman Sachs in March 2018, where he was a Partner and Global Head of Market Strats. His previous responsibilities included Systematic Trading Strategies, eProduct and FX/EM Structuring. In his external functions he was Member of the ECB's FX Consulting Group. Before Goldman Sachs, Bobby worked at Deutsche Bank and UniCredit/HVB. This perspective is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy an interest in any investment or advisory service by Stone Mountain Capital LTD. For queries or for further information around our research and advisory services please contact email: [email protected] under Tel.: +442037228175. 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