Alternative Markets Update December 2020 - Macro and Political Outlook December 2020 by Macro Eagle

Alternative Markets Update December 2020
​The following Figure shows the 30Y return of the best performing stocks in the S&P 500 during the last 30 years. According to Paul Tudor Jones, BTC can be viewed similarly as internet stocks back in 1999. He argues that these kinds of assets are similar, as there is or was no appropriate to measure their value, as it is currently the case for cryptocurrencies and has been in 1990 with internet-related stocks. Their returns also look similar, as they rose extremely quickly but had a major crash. For BTC that would 2018 and for the internet stocks it is known as the dot-com bubble in 2000. However, both assets have recovered quickly. Internet stocks are now the most valuable stocks like FAANG and ATM in China and it does not seem unlikely that a similar development could occur for cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the two major cryptocurrencies BTC and Ethereum (ETH) are compared to Figure 3. As a basis, the value of a cryptocurrency at inception is seen as its first trade. For BTC this would be a value of $0.000994. The first known sale of BTC in exchange for fiat occurred on Oct. 12 2009 when Finnish developer Martti Malmi sold 5,050 BTC for $5.02, with the fiat amount transferred via Paypal. For BTC, this leads to a staggering return since its inception of 1’919’430’484% over 11 years and easily tops the stock return list. For ETH this value is 204’962%, which would make the stock list on fourth place after Bitcoin, AMZN, MNST and JKHY within 6 years of the first traded price. ETH’s sale started on July 22 2014 at midnight in Switzerland. At the start of the sale and for fourteen days the price was set so that one BTC bought 2,000 ETH. At the end of the 14-day period the amount would decline linearly to a final rate of 1,337 ETH, which meant that one ether was worth 0.0007479 BTC or about $0.29 at BTC prices in September 2014. This would lead to annualized return for BTC of 459% and an annualized return for ETH of 356%. If looking at annualized return, these two cryptocurrencies take the first two positions easily.

Figure 3: Best Perfoming Stocks in the S&P 500 in the Last 30 Years, Source: Compound & YCharts, December 2020

Macro and Political Outlook December 2020 by Macro Eagle
THE YEAR AHEAD
After the sharpest global economic downturn since WW2 (-4%), next year the West will hope that the 2020-stimulus plus vaccine-rollout leads to an economic rebound without pushing yields higher (Debt Crisis? What debt crisis?).  On the big themes, I think the “K-nature” of the Covid recovery has some serious political risks (more below). I do think the love for all digital will continue, but beware of BigTech valuations and regulatory Tech-lash. Climate change will continue to drive the agenda, but beware of the ESG bubble. And as for geopolitics with Biden – I expect him to be as tough with China as Trump, just more polite. Apart from the US transition (more below) and China’s next 5-Year-Plan (more below) the two countries to watch are: post-Brexit Britain (more below) and Merkel-Daemmerung Germany (more below).

Figure 9: Major Upcoming Events in December, Source: Macro Eagle, December 2020

Figure 10: Major Upcoming Events in 2021, Source: Macro Eagle, December 2020

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RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE VOL. 145 December 2020 Download Research Perspective Alternative Markets Update December 2020 The equity market in sum had a great year and an especially good November. 2020 was largely driven by tech stocks. The equity market is currently in a highly greedy phase with very prospering outlooks in the near future. This is also shown by the movement from capital. In November, substantial amounts of capital invested in gold has been moved to equities. Some sources expect an increase of 20% from the S&P 500 in the next year. A great example for the huge growth of tech companies is Tesla, which will be added to the S&P 500 towards the end of the year. Figure 1 shows the development of the stock price of Tesla during 2020. Tesla started at a price of $86.05 in the year 2020 and is currently trading at $598.70 (as of 4th December 2020), which is a staggering YTD of 596%. Despite the current price of almost $600 of Tesla, the target price of Tesla lies around $800 when it is included in the S&P 500 according to a fund manager. With such a return, Tesla outclasses cryptocurrencies which done extremely well in 2020 and especially in November. Figure 2 shows a comparison of Bitcoin (BTC) and Tesla. This is another example of the outperformance of Tesla in comparison to Bitcoin, despite both being up at least 30% in November. It appears that cryptocurrencies are behaving similarly as growth stocks, even though they have really few similarities. Figure 1: Tesla’s Stock Price in 2020, Source: Market Watch, December 2020 Figure 2: Comparison of Returns in November of Bitcoin and Tesla, Source: Bloomberg The following Figure shows the 30Y return of the best perfoming stocks in the S&P 500 during the last 30 years. According to Paul Tudor Jones, BTC can be viewed similarly as internet stocks back in 1999. He argues that these kinds of assets are similar, as there is or was no appropriate to measure their value, as it is currently the case for cryptocurrencies and has been in 1990 with internet-related stocks. Their returns also look similar, as they rose extremely quickly but had a major crash. For BTC that would 2018 and for the internet stocks it is known as the dot-com bubble in 2000. However, both assets have recovered quickly. Internet stocks are now the most valuable stocks like FAANG and ATM in China and it does not seem unlikely that a similar development could occur for cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the two major cryptocurrencies BTC and Ethereum (ETH) are compared to Figure 3. As a basis, the value of a cryptocurrency at inception is seen as its first trade. For BTC this would be a value of $0.000994. The first known sale of BTC in exchange for fiat occurred on Oct. 12 2009 when Finnish developer Martti Malmi sold 5,050 BTC for $5.02, with the fiat amount transferred via Paypal. For BTC, this leads to a staggering return since its inception of 1’919’430’484% over 11 years and easily tops the stock return list. For ETH this value is 204’962%, which would make the stock list on fourth place after Bitcoin, AMZN, MNST and JKHY within 6 years of the first traded price. ETH’s sale started on July 22 2014 at midnight in Switzerland. At the start of the sale and for fourteen days the price was set so that one BTC bought 2,000 ETH. At the end of the 14-day period the amount would decline linearly to a final rate of 1,337 ETH, which meant that one ether was worth 0.0007479 BTC or about $0.29 at BTC prices in September 2014. This would lead to annualized return for BTC of 459% and an annualized return for ETH of 356%. If looking at annualized return, these two cryptocurrencies take the first two positions easily. Figure 3: Best Perfoming Stocks in the S&P 500 in the Last 30 Years, Source: Compound & YCharts, December 2020 Cryptocurrencies had a great November with BTC exceeding its record market capitalization from 2017. BTC’s market capitalization peaked at $366bn, while it is currently at $355bn. As shown in Figure 2, BTC’s return in November was great, despite a small fall towards the end of November. Since then BTC remained between the $18k and slightly below the $20k mark, that is eagerly awaited. Despite the high number of positive developments seen, BTC still has not managed to surpass the highly important $20k reliably.  ETH has finally launched ETH 2.0 on Dec 1, causing ETH to surge to its record high in 2020 of $634. However, since then, it remained relatively with some minor falls, which ranges from prices between $570 to $625. Figure 4 shows the development of ETH during the last three months. ETH’s market capitalization is currently at $67bn. Figure 4: Market Capitalization and Price of ETH in the Last Three Months, Source: CoinMarketCap, December 2020 Another major factor why cryptocurrencies, in particular BTC, are doing very well at the moment is the money printing especially in the US.  The fact that BTC cannot exceed a certain quantity (21m coins) makes it anti inflationary in a market environment with excessive monetary easing. The money printing has caused a substantial devaluation of the USD, which gained a significant amount of value early in the pandemic, but has fallen tremendously since summer, as Figure 5 shows. Figure 5: The US Dollar Index (DXY) from January 2016 to November 2020, Source: Andrews Gwynne, December 2020 With regards to the development of Covid-19, the situation seems to be under control to some extent, despite the huge number of daily infections. The two major reasons are that death rate is decreasing for months now and the latest vaccine news of Moderna, Pfizer/BioNTech and Astra Zeneca/Oxford. The U.K. is the first and only nation so far that has passed an approval and is already starting to vaccinate. In the hard-hit US, there are some good news as well, as it is assumed that the vaccine will be accepted there soon as well and the number of jobless claims has hit a new low since the emergence of the crisis. Regarding the U.K.’s economic situation, there is not much excitement at the moment, despite the vaccinations. A Brexit deal at this point in time seems quite unlikely, which would lead to hard Brexit and another major economic downturn in an already bad situation. It is at least assumed that the economy should recover relatively quickly in the case of no agreement with the EU. In contrast, private equity (PE) seems to have managed the crisis quite well. Figure 6 shows the global value of buyout deals. The first quarter of 2020 was almost at its record level from 2018, mainly due to the fact that Covid-19 had an impact on a small portion of the quarter. In the second quarter, the impact was substantial, as it led a decrease in buyout deals by almost 50% assuming similar growth rates as in the previous years. However, in Q3, it seems as Covid-19 is almost negligible, as the deal value was higher than in third quarters of the two previous years. The results from the survey, shown in Figure 7, further support the numbers of the Q2 2020. It is clearly visible that Covid-19 related issues have accelerated, while concerns in normal market conditions, such as transaction uncertainties and availability of leverage have strongly decreased. Figure 6: Value of Global Buyout Deals from 2015 to Q3 2020, Source: Dechert, December 2020 Figure 7: Survey on PE Outlook, Source: Dechert, December 2020 Macro and Political Outlook December 2020 by Macro Eagle Welcome to DECEMBER. 1 – NOVEMBER RECAP US equity markets started the month with the best election week performance since FDR (1932), celebrating the news of a tight Biden win coupled with a split Congress (we will find out for sure on Jan 5th in Georgia). There is a certain irony in supposedly “efficient” markets celebrating government inefficiency, but I will skip that thought for now. Then, after the Pfizer vaccine announcement (Nov 9th), markets went vertical (best month for global equities since 1988 and best month for US small caps ever). All this despite an increase in Covid-angst, a Quant Crash (big rotation from momentum into value), a Fed-Treasury dispute and a bitter Trump doing his best to dispute the result. Marketwise it all feels a bit “full bull”: the CNN “Fear & Greed” index (at 92) is at “extreme greed” level and close to all-time highs. There is a sharp rise in stock co-movement and equity short interest is at a 16-year low. Bottom line: not bearish, but certainly cautious. Figure 8: Major Events in November and its effect on the S&P 500 and the weekly US Covid-19 Hospitalization Rate, Source: Macro Eagle & Bloomberg, December 2020 2 – THE MONTH AHEAD December looks busy. The second week brings us the ECB (expect PEPP boost), the EU Council (update on UK trade deal, arm-twisting of HUN/POL ref EU budget) and the FDA approval of Pfizer’s vaccine. The third week will see the Electoral College confirm Biden, a plethora of economic data and the last major central bank meetings (FOMC, BOE, BOJ, PBRC) before Year-End. The fourth week sees the elevation of Tesla into the S&P500, which thanks to lemmings-like passive money is driving its share price and valuation to astronomical levels (good luck with that). Finally, in the fifth week, we might get some classic last-minute UK/EU trade deal drama (I still expect a basic deal). Then get ready to tell 2020 to “f### off” (pardon my French). Otherwise the Global North will be on weather & COVID watch. Especially the US will find out how bad of a super-spreader event Thanksgiving was. Also, given the strong gains in equities this quarter, beware of Asset Managers rebalancing their portfolios towards bonds in what are usually thin markets (remember Dec’18). Figure 9: Major Upcoming Events in December, Source: Macro Eagle, December 2020 3 – THE YEAR AHEAD After the sharpest global economic downturn since WW2 (-4%), next year the West will hope that the 2020-stimulus plus vaccine-rollout leads to an economic rebound without pushing yields higher (Debt Crisis? What debt crisis?).   On the big themes, I think the “K-nature” of the Covid recovery has some serious political risks (more below). I do think the love for all digital will continue, but beware of BigTech valuations and regulatory Tech-lash. Climate change will continue to drive the agenda, but beware of the ESG bubble. And as for geopolitics with Biden – I expect him to be as tough with China as Trump, just more polite. Apart from the US transition (more below) and China’s next 5-Year-Plan (more below) the two countries to watch are: post-Brexit Britain (more below) and Merkel-Daemmerung Germany (more below). Monster summer ahead for sport fans (see main events in green): after watching UEFA Euro 2020 (final in London!) at midday and Copa America in the evening, we move on to the Tokyo Olympics (five new sports: karate, skateboarding, surfing, climbing and baseball) and finish the season with the Ryder Cup (NZ) and Cricket T20 (India). Epic! Figure 10: Major Upcoming Events in 2021, Source: Macro Eagle, December 2020 4 – THE PROBLEM OF “K-RECOVERIES” The current “K-recovery” is visible everywhere. For example: Asia is outperforming Europe, putting Western governments under pressure (left graph). Due to a devastated service sector, bond yields are way below what the manufacturing activity implies – potentially stoking inflation in the future (middle graph). Tech shares are going vertical, while consumer sentiment is again falling (right graph). What do all of these have in common? Those who are doing well (tech, finance) are in the minority – while those worried about their job are not just mainly young, but most importantly in the political majority, plus they are also suffering of pandemic-fatigue. That is a potentially toxic mix for social unrest and one can only hope that the economy comes to the rescue fast enough to transform the “K” into a “V” once the vaccine roll-out starts. The real risk here is that, unlike the GFC-recovery, which was employment-strong but productivity-weak, the Covid-recovery will be employment-weak but productivity-strong. Then we have a (political) problem. Figure 11: Impact of Covid-19 Crisis on the Economy, Source: Macro Eagle, Bloomberg & Consumer Sentiment (U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Expectations) December 2020 5 – THE U.S. DURING THE TRANSITION Two questions: First – were the polls wrong? No. The problem is that most analysts make up their minds far too early, forgetting that savvy campaigners (like Trump) tend to “sprint into the finish” (i.e. momentum matters). Also, when 56% of Americans say they are better off than 4 years ago, you know that Trump deserves the statistical error. I did just fine analysing the public polls (expecting a close Biden win and Pennsylvania as kingmaker), no complaints. Second – what are the risks during the transition? Trump is the first US President since Gerald Ford to not start a war and I do not think he will start one now. He will pardon friends & family and will try to bind his successors hand by showering China/Russia/Iran with sanctions. Far more interesting is how third countries will react to the upcoming Biden administration, as the Netanyahu-MBS meeting illustrated (i.e. united front against Iran).   The good news for those who worry about China/Taiwan or Middle East tensions, is that the market seems oblivious to these risks: both the Taiwan Dollar and Israeli Shekel are trading close to multi-year highs (in case you want to buy puts). As for Covid/lockdown-risk, yes, “cases” have gone exponential, but not the hospitalization rate nor the death rate. What matters most is how cold the winter will be and judging from the NatGas futures, this winter is expected to be relatively mild. Figure 12: Exponential Cases of Covid-19 and Non-Exponential Deaths and the Exchanges Rates of USD-ILS and USD-TWD, Source: Macro Eagle & Bloomberg, December 2020 6 – THE EU Given the global equity rotation into value and despite Poland/Hungary spoiling the EU budget approval, the support for European assets has been strong (see graph). As for 2021, EU politicians will learn that agreeing on borrowing money was the easy bit. Agreeing on how to spend it will be much harder, and how to pay it back will be rocket science for some. The Netherlands have their election in March and PM Rutte needs to ensure he does not get outflanked by the Eurosceptic right. As mentioned last time, that GE-IT spread looks too tight for me. As for Germany, probably the world’s most important election next year (in September or October), I expect a Centre-Right/Green coalition with Soeder (CSU) as chancellor. As coalition talks will run into December, Merkel will overtake Kohl (16 years) as longest serving chancellor. Macron will spend 2021 in a diplomatic activist mode, not just to take over the EU leadership mantle from Merkle, but also because France has the EU presidency in Q1’22 and general elections in Q2’22. Given his unpopularity at home, he needs to show some results abroad. Figure 13: Economic Recovery in Europe in November, Source: Macro Eagle & Bloomberg, December 2020 7 – CHINA In late October we got the communique of the 5th plenum of the CCP’s 19th Central Committee finalizing the blueprint of their 14th Five-Year-Plan that will be presented in March. The new buzzword (they love them in Beijing) is “dual circulation” which basically underlines the importance of domestic growth (as expected). If in March this leads to hints of meaningful social reform (for example the hukou system), that could be very positive for Chinese domestic equities. Otherwise, it also means that China will need to continue with capital markets opening, hence expect continuing Yuan strength (especially with a more polite Biden). Very important in 2021 is the 100th anniversary of the CCP (July 1st). That means smooth sailing into the event, but also ZERO tolerance in terms of any territorial dispute (hint Taiwan). Figure 14: China’s Equities, 10Y Government Yield and Exchange Rate in Comparison to the World and/or the US, Source: Macro Eagle, December 2020 8 – BREXIT BRITAIN The fact that the Brexit process has been shambolic, implies that UK assets are not expensive. In fact, in an overvalued world, I do think they present reasonably good value. Here is why: (1) I do expect some sort of basic deal in line with already very low market expectations. (2) After shrinking by 11% in 2020, the biggest contraction in 300 years, the UK is well placed for a rebound given its abundant access to vaccines and sensitivity to a rebound in services. (3) The UK is the big underweight in every asset manager’s portfolio, and it shows: the FTSE100 is one of this year’s big underperformers. (4) UK real yields at -2% are among the lowest in developed markets. (5) I think there is a chance the UK will join the CPTPP trade agreement. (6) The UK has a multitude of PR opportunities next year from the G7 presidency, to the COP26 summit and last but not least: the UEFA Euro 2020 final in London. (7) In the rotation to “value”, the FTSE100 is well placed: full of energy, finance and basic resources. (8) With Cummings out, PM Johnson has an opportunity to press the “reset” button. The new Chief of Staff (Dan Rosenfield) seems like a solid first step. I was long GBP this year and have done very well. Time to close the FX position and switch into equities (FTSE100 and FTSE250 for different reasons). 9 out of 10 people reading this note will disagree – that is exactly why I like it. Figure 15: Underperformance of the UK in 2020, Source: Macro Eagle, December 2020 9 – PORTFOLIO I live in the English countryside, Somerset, beautiful. Also because markets & politics are best observed with some degree of distance. Normally the discussion here is about the weather, the pub or the school. So, I worry when I suddenly get Chinese Tech investment tips from the locals. Tells you that we are in some sort of “euphoric moment” and that it is time to turn cautious. My strategic allocation has not changed: long real assets and anything a central bank can’t print, like equities, real estate, land, commodities (gold) and small bitcoins. Implied volatilities have fallen substantially, and I do think it is time to add some hedges, especially against future inflation (high strike US payers) as well as some of the tactical ideas mentioned above. Given the strong Asian recovery and my bullish view on commodities, I do think it is worth having some tactical longs (limited downside) in EMFX like ZAR, BRL and RUB. Figure 16: Equity-Bond Correlation, US Inflation and 1Y Performance of Various Asset Classes, Source: Macro Eagle & Bloomberg, December 2020 Have a great DECEMBER ... stay safe … and MAY THE MARKET BE WITH YOU. Merry Christmas, frohe Weihnachtstage y Prospero Año 2021 a todos! Bobby   The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, Stone Mountain Capital LTD. Readers should refer to the Disclaimer. Bobby Vedral MacroEagle E : info@macroeagle.com M : +447899996595   Bobby is a macro-political analyst who runs his own fund MacroEagle. He is also the UK representative of the German Economic Council (Wirtschaftsrat Deutschland) focused on the German-British relationship post-Brexit. 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