ALTERNATIVE MARKETS UPDATE - H2 2023 OUTLOOK

​From a financial perspective, inflation, interest rates, and a possible recession remain the most vital topics in the short term. While inflation came down substantially in 2023, interest rate hikes have persisted thus far. In the US, the interest rate set by the Fed remains at 5% after they decided that no hike was necessary in June 2023. With the release of job data in early July, talks about further hikes have increased, as data showed that job growth has slowed. Market participants now expect further hikes in 2023. The projection from the beginning of 2023 and possible rate cuts as early as Q3 2023 seem very unlikely at this point. Figure 1 shows the expected interest rate level until 2025. Rates are expected to rise to 5.5% by the end of 2023. Based on a survey from 18 members of the FOMC, rate projections range from 5.1%-6.1% by the end of the year. In 2024 and onwards, gradual rate cuts are expected with rates around 3% by 2025. These projections are highly dependent on a positive development of inflation and job data. Recent inflation data in the US has been very promising, as inflation decreased to “only” 4%. The steep measures taken by the Fed since 2022 managed to combat inflation substantially. Excluding highly impactful developments (e.g., a steep recession or a strong escalation of war), inflation is expected to steadily decrease over the next years. By the end of 2023, inflation is expected to be around 3% ± 1% and slightly above 2% ± 2% in 2024. The expected, slowed decrease in inflation is largely attributed to the tamer measures of the Fed after their initial aggressive hikes. As these take time to become effective, the decrease should slow down. Additionally, a recession or a market correction is highly likely which may cause further issues with inflation and may slow down the effectiveness of the measure so far. Overall, the likelihood of a recession is still significantly high. The most notable differences in the expected recession compared to forecasts in early 2023 and 2022 are the recession is likely a mild one. Additionally, with the recent positive developments, a possible recession is pushed further in the future. At the end of 2022, a recession was anticipated to occur between Q3 and Q4 2023. Current forecasts expect a recession in the US in early 2024. Despite the harsh ecosystem, US equities had a great year in 2023 with a 15% return so far. On an industry level, the picture looks very different. Basically the entire gain of equities came from soaring tech stocks. On the other end of the spectrum are banking stocks, which have suffered this year, especially after the collapse of multiple large banks, such as Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. Forecasts for the value of the S&P 500 at the end of 2023 deviate substantially. In general, estimates were raised slightly compared to estimates back in 2022. On an aggregate level, investment banks expect the S&P 500 to end the year at roughly above 4,100. The highest estimates are 4,550 for the index. Contributors to these estimates are a less aggressive Fed, resilient economic growth, and the recent interest in artificial intelligence in combination with the soaring tech stocks. Bearish outlooks go as low as 3,400 points and cite a continued slide in stocks as the core reason. 

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RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE VOL. 207 July 2023 Alternative Markets Outlook H2 2023 From a financial perspective, inflation, interest rates, and a possible recession remain the most vital topics in the short term. While inflation came down substantially in 2023, interest rate hikes have persisted thus far. In the US, the interest rate set by the Fed remains at 5% after they decided that no hike was necessary in June 2023. With the release of job data in early July, talks about further hikes have increased, as data showed that job growth has slowed. Market participants now expect further hikes in 2023. The projection from the beginning of 2023 and possible rate cuts as early as Q3 2023 seem very unlikely at this point. Figure 1 shows the expected interest rate level until 2025. Rates are expected to rise to 5.5% by the end of 2023. Based on a survey from 18 members of the FOMC, rate projections range from 5.1%-6.1% by the end of the year. In 2024 and onwards, gradual rate cuts are expected with rates around 3% by 2025. These projections are highly dependent on a positive development of inflation and job data. Recent inflation data in the US has been very promising, as inflation decreased to “only” 4%. The steep measures taken by the Fed since 2022 managed to combat inflation substantially. Excluding highly impactful developments (e.g., a steep recession or a strong escalation of war), inflation is expected to steadily decrease over the next years. By the end of 2023, inflation is expected to be around 3% ± 1% and slightly above 2% ± 2% in 2024. The expected, slowed decrease in inflation is largely attributed to the tamer measures of the Fed after their initial aggressive hikes. As these take time to become effective, the decrease should slow down. Additionally, a recession or a market correction is highly likely which may cause further issues with inflation and may slow down the effectiveness of the measure so far. Overall, the likelihood of a recession is still significantly high. The most notable differences in the expected recession compared to forecasts in early 2023 and 2022 are the recession is likely a mild one. Additionally, with the recent positive developments, a possible recession is pushed further in the future. At the end of 2022, a recession was anticipated to occur between Q3 and Q4 2023. Current forecasts expect a recession in the US in early 2024. Despite the harsh ecosystem, US equities had a great year in 2023 with a 15% return so far. On an industry level, the picture looks very different. Basically the entire gain of equities came from soaring tech stocks. On the other end of the spectrum are banking stocks, which have suffered this year, especially after the collapse of multiple large banks, such as Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. Forecasts for the value of the S&P 500 at the end of 2023 deviate substantially. In general, estimates were raised slightly compared to estimates back in 2022. On an aggregate level, investment banks expect the S&P 500 to end the year at roughly above 4,100. The highest estimates are 4,550 for the index. Contributors to these estimates are a less aggressive Fed, resilient economic growth, and the recent interest in artificial intelligence in combination with the soaring tech stocks. Bearish outlooks go as low as 3,400 points and cite a continued slide in stocks as the core reason. Figure 1: Actual and Expected Fed Interest Rate from January 2022 to December 2025 (Expected Rates based on 18 Members from the Federal Open Market Committee), Sources: Federal Reserve, Federal Open Market Committee & Stone Mountain Capital Research, July 2023 Figure 2: Actual and Expected Inflation Rate in the US from January 2022 to December 2024, Sources: Stone Mountain Capital Research, OECD, Federal Reserve, July 2023 Figure 3: Actual & Expected S&P 500 Level from January 2022 to December 2023, Sources: Stone Mountain Capital Research & Morningstar, July 2023 In Europe, the ECB is still raising interest rates and intends on continuing. Despite this, interest rates are still only at 4% in comparison to the 5% in the US. Market participants expect that the ECB ends the year at around 4.5%-4.75% in a continued effort to fight inflation. However, it is unlikely that the ECB can hike as much as the US, as the current expected growth implies an economic slowdown if rates increase much more. On the other hand, further hikes are desired from an inflation standpoint. In comparison to the US, inflation is still relatively high at 7% and needs attention. This is a difficult ecosystem to navigate and there seems to be a preference to keeping inflation under control. While it is expected that rates will be around 4.5% at the end of the year, estimates vary from 4% to 5.25%. Figure 4 summarizes these findings and includes a further outlook until 2025. With the slower initial reaction of the ECB and its closer proximity to the war, inflation at its peak reached almost 12% in October 2022. Since then, inflation has been constantly decreasing to 7%. This trend is expected to continue, especially as the ECB is not intending to stop hiking very soon. Inflation is expected to be nearly half to around 3.5% ± 1.5% by the end of the year. These estimates are assuming that the war remains relatively stable. In the case of extreme events, inflation could soar again. Figure 5 shows the expected inflation in the EU as well as optimistic and pessimistic estimates until 2024. As mentioned previously, the ECB needs to carefully consider its hikes, as the EU has technically entered a recession with a GDP growth of -0.1% in Q1 2023. This is a dangerous situation, as many investors expect a global recession in 2024. If Europe is struggling already now and there is a recession in 2024, it may no longer be a mild one as most people expect. Figure 4: Actual and Expected ECB Interest Rate from January 2022 to December 2025 (Expected Rates based on ECB Survey, 30Rates, Own Research), Sources: ECB, ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q2 2023), 30Rates & Stone Mountain Capital Research, July 2023 Figure 5: Actual and Expected Inflation Rate in the EU from January 2022 to December 2024, Sources: Stone Mountain Capital Research, OECD, Eurostat, July 2023 The UK is in a more dire situation than the US or the EU. The interest rate is as high as in the US, but inflation remains at almost 9%. In their last meeting, the BoE decided to raise interest rates to 5% in an unanticipated 50bps hike. They stated that sticky inflation and wage growth were the most important factors for the decision. It is now expected that interest rates will hit 6% by the end of the year. In more extreme situations, some estimates are as high as 7%. Figure 6 shows the expected interest rate set by the BoE until 2025. Inflation is another crucial topic in the UK that does not seem to get better, even with the steep hikes since 2022. The still very high inflation is a huge problem for the UK, as its economy is not in a great state. However, it is expected that rates should come down during the remainder of the year. Most estimations place the UK’s inflation somewhere around 6% by the end of the year and around 4% by 2024. While this is certainly progress, the country still struggles substantially more than Europe or the US. Figure 7 shows how the inflation rate is expected to behave in the next years. A significant contributor to the problems the UK faces comes from their energy policy, as they were slower to react when prices soared. This led to a higher cap on energy prices than most other European countries. The labor market in the UK also faced issues, which can be partially attributed to Brexit that have not been fully resolved. The country’s public debt also surpassed 100% of its GDP for the first time since 1961. In this situation, most economists agree that a recession in the UK is almost a certainty at that point. Figure 6: Actual and Expected BoE Interest Rate from January 2022 to December 2025 (Expected Rates based on BoE, Schroders, News Articles & Own Research), Sources: BoE, Schroders, Reuters, The Guardian & Stone Mountain Capital Research, July 2023 Figure 7: Actual and Expected Inflation Rate in the UK from January 2022 to December 2024, Sources: Stone Mountain Capital Research, OECD, Office for National Statistics, July 2023 Hedge Funds The hedge fund industry had a relatively solid year in 2023 so far. Most strategies could recover at least some of their losses from 2022. Notably, both equity and fixed income strategies are up this year. More niche strategies, such as crypto-focused strategies, had a great H1 2023 and are up more than 40%. Strategies that struggled are global macro, of which many were caught off guard by the aggressive hikes. The other strategy that suffered substantially this year was energy-based strategies. In particular, oil-based strategies were hit hard, and many funds saw their worst yearly return in 2023. However, overall the industry is in a healthy spot and continues to grow. The industry managed to surpass the $5tn mark in AuM in Q1 2023. The industry saw strong growth over the past ten years, as shown in Figure 8. Back in 2013, the AuM of the industry was just below $2tn. It is expected will continue to grow in the remainder of 2023 and beyond. In this highly volatile ecosystem, hedge funds are likely to see net inflows to protect capital from potential drawdowns in passively managed alternatives. The increased risk with a decent chance of a recession is also attractive to hedge funds. While there is the threat of potentially large losses, it also comes with a lot of opportunities and attractive entry and short positions. This also allows hedge funds to shine in comparison to passive benchmarks and make the industry more attractive to new and existing investors. The increased risk is also likely to accelerate the consolidation trend in the industry, as it becomes more and more competitive. This is in particular the case for smaller hedge funds. Essentially, they either achieve strong gains, which can attract a lot of capital, or incur losses which likely result in the funds shutting down. Investors are also likely to shift their strategic focus away from high Sharpe ratio and low volatility strategies, as these strategies become less attractive with higher interest rates and those strategies may no longer achieve higher returns in comparison to the high interest rates. Figure 8: Hedge Fund AuM from 2013 to Q1 2023, Sources: BarclayHedge, July 2023 Blockchain Cryptocurrencies had a turbulent first half of 2023. The industry rebounded strongly after a disappointing 2022 when investors were shifting their preferences to less risk. In this case, cryptocurrencies are the first asset class that suffers from this shift. This led to a contraction of more than 60%. Cryptocurrencies followed tech stocks in the first few months and soared by more than 50% in the first quarter. The banking crisis caused a halt in the gains, as many established banks paused or limited trading of cryptos. The regulatory insecurities also caused concerns for the industry. This peaked when the SEC sued various large exchanges and classified many of the largest coins as securities. This highlights the importance of a clear regulatory framework, as many industry leaders have been pushing for years. Some countries have established some regulatory frameworks around the topic, but it is still outstanding in the US. Cryptocurrencies also gained substantially after multiple Bitcoin ETFs have registered. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $30k and Ethereum at $1.87k. This corresponds to a gain of more than 80% for BTC and 60% for ETH. Figure 9 shows a comparison of the yearly performance of BTC and ETH in 2022 and 2023. The market capitalization of the entire industry is $1.18tn, which is still far off from its highs in 2021 when the market cap was close to $3tn. Predictions for Bitcoin price levels for the end of 2023 mostly range between $25k and $40k. While predictions for cryptocurrencies are of course very volatile, they seem reasonable as interest rates will likely stabilize in the short-term and fall over the next few years. It also seems that most people who hold the asset for speculative purposes have sold their assets during 2022. Through the gains in 2023, the number of speculative holders will certainly be higher again, but it is unlikely that there will be a similar sell-off as during 2022. While this is likely to hold for a mild recession, it might change if the recession turns out to be severe. In this instance, the lower level of $25k is probably too optimistic. Figure 9: Cumulative Return of Bitcoin and Ethereum in 2022 and 2023, Sources: CoinMarketCap & Yahoo Finance, July 2023 Private Equity / Venture Capital The private equity is under pressure in 2023 and it will continue in the short-term. Equities have struggled in 2022 and 2023 (with the exception of tech companies), which also affects valuations in private markets. In addition, the high interest rates also push valuations down. While this reduces the attractiveness of the industry, investors are facing difficulties predicting the long-term ecosystem. This leads to a more cautious approach to investing, especially as a recession is on the horizon. At least in the longer term, this has historically led to attractive opportunities in the space. However, in the short-term, this results in a substantial slowdown in deal activity. Sellers are not ready to raise capital at a substantially lower value than they could have before. Thus, sellers do not want to take a large cut in their valuations, and buyers are not ready to pay the relatively high prices sellers expect. This decreased activity will also lead to less inflows in the industry, as exit payments to LPs will be delayed and those investors will wait until they commit capital again. The industry is likely to struggle in 2023 and probably 2024, but historically those years have achieved strong performances, as entry values are much more attractive. Fundraising is down substantially in the industry. PE funds managed to raise almost $100bn in Q1 2023, which is 16% less than in Q1 2022. Due to slowed deal activity, secondaries have gained traction and saw more inflows than in previous years. This sub-strategy is the only strategy that has seen a positive development. Venture capital was hit the hardest, as it is the most risky sub-strategy. VC struggles due to the same reasons as private equity, but is also less appealing, as the risk appetite has generally decreased. With a recession on the horizon, increasing risk is not a strategy many investors pursue. VC raised only $27bn in Q1 2023, which is a steep decline from the $168bn raised in 2022. On a YoY basis, fundraising has decreased by more than 38%. Figures 10 and 11 show the fundraising of private equity and venture capital over the past ten years. Figure 10: Private Equity Fundraising from January 2013 to Q1 2023, Source: Pitchbook, May 2023 Figure 11: Venture Capital Fundraising Activity from January 2013 to Q1 2023, Source: Pitchbook, May 2023 Private Debt Among the alternative asset classes, private debt is probably in the best position. While high interest rates compete with returns from private debt, it also increases interest rates, which is favorable for the industry. This is in particular true for direct lending, which is the prominent strategy in the space. In 2023, direct lending has lost some interest from investors, which has shifted more towards mezzanine and distressed strategies. While returns from direct lending have increased, it is relatively no longer that attractive with noticeable yields on public bonds. Additionally, with the threat of a recession, the risk also increases, as defaults become more likely. Mezzanine strategies are appealing as they offer higher returns with their upside potential. Moreover, there is also more demand for borrowers for mezzanine instruments. With currently low valuations, raising capital through equity methods is less attractive. Mezzanine instruments help preserve some capital and thereby reducing the necessity for further equity rounds at unfavorable valuations. Naturally, with more risk of defaults, which seem likely at the high interest rate levels and the potential recession, distressed strategies can benefit from this ecosystem. Despite the rather positive outlook, fundraising does not necessarily show these developments. The private debt industry raised $42bn in Q1 2023, which is slightly below the average quarterly fundraising in 2022 with $49bn. However, Q1 tends to be the least active quarter and it is on par with fundraising levels in Q1 2022. Current fundraising levels also are around the historical average since 2017. Figure 12 highlights the growth in fundraising of private debt since 2013. With the general financial tightening, it presents another opportunity to shine for private debt. This scenario seems quite likely, as rates are expected to raise further and banks will be more cautious in lending activities. Figure 12: Private Debt Fundraising Activity from January 2013 to Q1 2023, Source: Pitchbook, May 2023 Real Estate Unlike private debt, the real estate industry is struggling. With elevated interest rates, mortgage rates have substantially risen. Additionally, historically housing prices are at high levels, even though they have cooled since the heights of 2022. The high market uncertainty, a potential recession, and the threat of the housing bubble bursting also contribute to a rather negative outlook for the industry. The latter seems more and more unlikely, as house prices are declining consistently since their height in 2022. It seems that this correction will continue and mitigate the threat of a housing bubble. The state of the industry can be best shown by current fundraising numbers, which are highlighted in Figure 13. In Q1 2023, only $20bn was raised by real estate funds. Over the past five years, this has been the worst quarter in terms of fundraising, even when considering Q3 2020 at the peak of the pandemic. On a YoY basis, these numbers correspond to a 40% decline. As an emerging manager, the situation is even more dire, as a majority of capital has been raised by large and established funds. While this is true in general, in Q1 2023 large funds accounted for an even higher percentage than usual. On a strategic level, there was little interest in core, core plus, or distressed funds. A majority of capital went into value-add strategy and most of the remaining capital was invested in opportunistic funds. This is not surprising, as low-risk strategies are simply not worth pursuing, as similar returns can be achieved by buying bonds. Figure 13: Real Estate Fundraising from January 2018 to Q1 2023, Source: Preqin Pro, May 2023 STONE MOUNTAIN CAPITAL Stone Mountain Capital is an advisory boutique established in 2012 and headquartered in London with offices Pfaeffikon in Switzerland, Dubai and Umm Al Quwain in United Arab Emirates. We are advising 30+ best in class single hedge fund and multi-strategy managers across equity, credit, and tactical trading (global macro, CTAs and volatility). In private assets, we advise 10+ sponsors and general partners across private equity, venture capital, private credit, real estate, capital relief trades (CRT) by structuring funding vehicles, rating advisory and private placements. As of 19th May 2023, Stone Mountain Capital has total alternative Assets under Advisory (AuA) of US$ 61.2 billion. US$ 44.7 billion is mandated in hedge funds and US$ 16.5 billion in private assets and corporate finance (private equity, venture capital, private debt, real estate, fintech). 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