ALTERNATIVE MARKETS UPDATE - MID AUGUST 2023

​The macroeconomic environment remains challenging for all market participants. Aside from the high volatility in the market, the uncertainty about future interest and inflation rates makes the investment processes much more difficult. In the US, the situation is decent compared to most other countries. Inflation is back at a moderate level of 3.2%, despite the recent increase from 3% in June. However, the interest rate is still very high at 5.25%-5.5%, which adds significant pressure to companies, especially if there is a recession. In the EU, the situation is less promising, as inflation remains above 6% with only slightly lower interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%. Despite this, the EU area is recovering following the development of the US with a delay of a couple of months. It is likely that inflation will be down to manageable levels by the end of 2023, assuming there is no further escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine. In the UK, the situation is more precarious. Inflation is still close to 8% and has remained above 10% for almost a year. In addition, the BoE’s interest rates are at equal levels as the Fed’s. With an already struggling economy, this only increases the issues. However, the development in the last few months has been positive with inflation coming down. This might ease the immediate pressure, but the economy is still under a lot of pressure. Figure 1 summarizes the development of inflation and interest rates in the US, the EU, and the UK.

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RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE VOL. 209 August 2023 Alternative Markets August 2023 The macroeconomic environment remains challenging for all market participants. Aside from the high volatility in the market, the uncertainty about future interest and inflation rates makes the investment processes much more difficult. In the US, the situation is decent compared to most other countries. Inflation is back at a moderate level of 3.2%, despite the recent increase from 3% in June. However, the interest rate is still very high at 5.25%-5.5%, which adds significant pressure to companies, especially if there is a recession. In the EU, the situation is less promising, as inflation remains above 6% with only slightly lower interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%. Despite this, the EU area is recovering following the development of the US with a delay of a couple of months. It is likely that inflation will be down to manageable levels by the end of 2023, assuming there is no further escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine. In the UK, the situation is more precarious. Inflation is still close to 8% and has remained above 10% for almost a year. In addition, the BoE’s interest rates are at equal levels as the Fed’s. With an already struggling economy, this only increases the issues. However, the development in the last few months has been positive with inflation coming down. This might ease the immediate pressure, but the economy is still under a lot of pressure. Figure 1: Inflation and Interest Rate Development from January 2022 to July 2023, Sources: Stone Mountain Capital Research & Trading Economics, August 2023 The conflict between the US and China has been largely overshadowed in recent times. With increased pressure on Taiwan, Biden signed an executive order, which prohibits US investments in sensitive technologies in China from 2024 onwards. These include semiconductors, microelectronics, quantum information technologies, and certain artificial intelligence systems. This comes after intensified dispute over Taiwan and increased motivation to strengthen national security, especially after the failure involving Russia from Western allies. With an already struggling Chinese economy, this puts further pressure on the Chinese market. In particular, Chinese hedge funds are struggling, as many US investors completely retreat from the country. Many small hedge fund managers already closed their shops following this development. STONE MOUNTAIN CAPITAL Stone Mountain Capital is an advisory boutique established in 2012 and headquartered in London with offices Pfaeffikon in Switzerland, Dubai and Umm Al Quwain in United Arab Emirates. We are advising 30+ best in class single hedge fund and multi-strategy managers across equity, credit, and tactical trading (global macro, CTAs and volatility). In private assets, we advise 10+ sponsors and general partners across private equity, venture capital, private credit, real estate, capital relief trades (CRT) by structuring funding vehicles, rating advisory and private placements. As of 19th May 2023, Stone Mountain Capital has total alternative Assets under Advisory (AuA) of US$ 61.2 billion. US$ 44.7 billion is mandated in hedge funds and US$ 16.5 billion in private assets and corporate finance (private equity, venture capital, private debt, real estate, fintech). 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