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ALTERNATIVE MARKETS UPDATE - MID DECEMBER 2022

15/12/2022

 
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​With the final interest rate decisions of most central banks this year, it concludes a year of strong intervention to combat soaring inflation caused by the aftermath of Covid-19, and the ongoing war as well as general political instability. The Fed, the BoE, the ECB, and the SNB all increase their respective target rates by 50 basis points. The US interest rate is now at 4.25% - 4.5% with the British interest rate slightly lower at 3.5%. The European Union’s interest rate ends the year at a 2% target with the Swiss interest rate even lower at 1%. Figure 1 summarizes the interest rate hikes of these central banks during 2022. The UK and the US moved relatively quickly in increasing interest rates compared to the ECB and the Swiss National Bank. The impact of these measures is mixed at best. While inflation has been rampant throughout the year, only the Fed’s measures seem to have calmed inflation to a degree. The US inflation peaked in June at 9.1% and fell to 7.1% as of November 2022. Although they managed to control it, the degree to which inflation is reduced is far lower than the interest rate impact. Despite a similarly strong stance by the BoE, inflation is going up and down with a tendency to go up. The UK inflation remains at 10.7%. Compared to the US, the UK is dealing with several other issues not prominent in the US. Not only is the UK still somewhat in a transition phase with the EU, but it is also more directly impacted by the ongoing war and experienced a few chaotic months with the election, the resignation of ex-PM Truss, and her historical tax cut when the economy was already strongly under pressure. Inflation in the European Union is also unlikely to slow down fast given the close involvement in the war and the slow reaction to the rising inflation. As of October 2022, the EU’s inflation is the highest of the four economies at 11.5%. Lastly, Switzerland reacted slightly faster than the EU but hikes less aggressively. However, compared to the other economies, Switzerland does not face such an imminent problem with inflation, as the current inflation rate is only 3% with its previous peak being in August 2022 at only 3.5%. Figure 2 summarizes the development of inflation across the four discussed economies during 2022. Despite the general tone of central banks that they plan to decrease their balance sheet and keep raising interest rates well into 2023, market participants see fewer interest rate hikes ahead with a potential reversal earlier than expected. Going forward, interest rates will rise further with likely declining inflation, as the measures should work in the longer term. When inflation is showing signs of a continued slowdown and comes back to reasonable levels, interest rates are likely to decline gradually. This transition period will be especially intriguing to fixed income hedge funds and instruments, as high interest rates and low inflation offers stable and low-risk returns. This is especially true, as this economic ecosystem has not been present in the past decade. Equities did well in the latter half of 2022, despite the unfavorable ecosystem with rising interest rates and a harsh economy. If the situation should normalize sooner than expected, equities are well positioned to regain some of their incurred losses in the first half of 2022. Macro strategies have had an exceptional year in 2022 with plenty of opportunities. Most macro hedge funds could use these opportunities to generate strong returns. 
Central Bank Interventions of the Fed, ECB, BoE, SNB                                                  Inflation in the US, the EU, the UK, and Switzerland
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RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE VOL. 193
December 2022
Alternative Markets Update December 2022
With the final interest rate decisions of most central banks this year, it concludes a year of strong intervention to combat soaring inflation caused by the aftermath of Covid-19, and the ongoing war as well as general political instability. The Fed, the BoE, the ECB, and the SNB all increase their respective target rates by 50 basis points. The US interest rate is now at 4.25% - 4.5% with the British interest rate slightly lower at 3.5%. The European Union’s interest rate ends the year at a 2% target with the Swiss interest rate even lower at 1%. Figure 1 summarizes the interest rate hikes of these central banks during 2022. The UK and the US moved relatively quickly in increasing interest rates compared to the ECB and the Swiss National Bank. The impact of these measures is mixed at best. While inflation has been rampant throughout the year, only the Fed’s measures seem to have calmed inflation to a degree. The US inflation peaked in June at 9.1% and fell to 7.1% as of November 2022. Although they managed to control it, the degree to which inflation is reduced is far lower than the interest rate impact. Despite a similarly strong stance by the BoE, inflation is going up and down with a tendency to go up. The UK inflation remains at 10.7%. Compared to the US, the UK is dealing with several other issues not prominent in the US. Not only is the UK still somewhat in a transition phase with the EU, but it is also more directly impacted by the ongoing war and experienced a few chaotic months with the election, the resignation of ex-PM Truss, and her historical tax cut when the economy was already strongly under pressure. Inflation in the European Union is also unlikely to slow down fast given the close involvement in the war and the slow reaction to the rising inflation. As of October 2022, the EU’s inflation is the highest of the four economies at 11.5%. Lastly, Switzerland reacted slightly faster than the EU but hikes less aggressively. However, compared to the other economies, Switzerland does not face such an imminent problem with inflation, as the current inflation rate is only 3% with its previous peak being in August 2022 at only 3.5%. Figure 2 summarizes the development of inflation across the four discussed economies during 2022. Despite the general tone of central banks that they plan to decrease their balance sheet and keep raising interest rates well into 2023, market participants see fewer interest rate hikes ahead with a potential reversal earlier than expected. Going forward, interest rates will rise further with likely declining inflation, as the measures should work in the longer term. When inflation is showing signs of a continued slowdown and comes back to reasonable levels, interest rates are likely to decline gradually. This transition period will be especially intriguing to fixed income hedge funds and instruments, as high interest rates and low inflation offers stable and low-risk returns. This is especially true, as this economic ecosystem has not been present in the past decade. Equities did well in the latter half of 2022, despite the unfavorable ecosystem with rising interest rates and a harsh economy. If the situation should normalize sooner than expected, equities are well positioned to regain some of their incurred losses in the first half of 2022. Macro strategies have had an exceptional year in 2022 with plenty of opportunities. Most macro hedge funds could use these opportunities to generate strong returns.
Figure 1: Target Interest Rate of the Fed, ECB, BoE, and SNB During 2022, Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, ECB, Bank of England, SNB, December 2022
Figure 2: Inflation Rate of the US, EU, UK, and Switzerland During 2022, Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Eurostats, Office for National Statistics, Swiss Federal Statistical Office, December 2022
Since the collapse of FTX, the cryptocurrency market has been under pressure. The market was already strongly pressured through the continued sell-off of high-risk assets during the entire year. Ahead of the collapse, the market had lost already more than 50% of its value at the beginning of the year. At the end of 2021, the industry’s total market capitalization ranged close to $2.5tn. When FTX collapsed, the total market capitalization dropped to below $800bn. Since then, it has moved between $800bn to $870bn. Figure 3 shows the steep decline in the value of the cryptocurrency market during the year 2022. Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $17.5k and Ethereum (ETH) at $1.25k. During the year, these two most important cryptocurrencies lost between 60% and 70%. The most “stable” coins (excluding stablecoins) were Binance Coin (BNB) and Ripple (XRP), which “only” lost around 50% of their value this year. Solana (SOL), the frequently called “Ethereum-Killer” lost more than 90% this year. Part of this loss stems from the issues with their blockchain protocol. It experienced several technical breaches and was down several times this year amid security concerns. Many in the industry turned to different, more stable blockchain protocols instead. Figure 4 summarizes the losses of major (non-stablecoin) cryptocurrencies this year. Although 2021 was a year of strong growth, the number of coins outstanding was only around 6k at the end of the year. The strong growth phase in new projects is 2022. Currently, there are around 22k unique coins available in the project. It is likely that this stream of new projects has its origin in the strong growth phase of 2020 and 2021 when people decide to launch new projects. As development time can be substantial, it is likely that the results of these projects are only observable in 2022, when most of these projects decide to be publicly available. The collapse of Terra (LUNA), an algorithmic stablecoin, and the latest FTX incident substantially destabilized the ecosystem and trust in the “infallible” blockchain technology. This led to a rise of other stablecoins based on physically backed assets, such as Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC). Both of them are backed by USD, and by market capitalization, they are the third and fourth largest cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the daily volume of USDT outclasses the volume of BTC, making it the currency with the highest volume. The collapse of FTX is likely to benefit large existing exchanges and decentralized exchanges (DEXs). While centralized exchanges, which are responsible for a vast majority of trading in the crypto space, will face more scrutiny from investors, established exchanges will overtake most trading activities. Among these exchanges, Binance is in the prime position to do so. It is by far the largest centralized exchange with a daily trading volume of $13tn, compared to Coinbase, the second largest, with only $2.3tn. Once DEXs become more established, they will disrupt the current high market share of centralized exchanges. Most of these exchanges have shown that they have worked as intended without security issues and no downtime since their launches. The US is moving quickly in the FTX incident. Sam Bankman-Fried, ex-CEO of FTX and its subsidiary Alameda, has been arrested in the Bahamas and faces criminal and civil charges. These include wire fraud on customers and lenders, securities fraud, money laundering, and defrauding the US, among others.
Figure 3: Total Market Capitalization of the Cryptocurrency Industry from December 2021 to December 2022, Source: CoinMarketCap, December 2022
Figure 4: Percentage Losses of Major Cryptocurrencies (Non-Stablecoins) During 2022, Source: CoinMarketCap, December 2022
2023 Crypto Predictions – Veradi Verdict Issue #227 by Paul Veradittakit from Pantera Capital
2022 has certainly been a series of highs and lows for the crypto industry. After the 2021 bull run, we kicked off 2022 with a correction as Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped ~20% and ~31% respectively in January alone. Macro factors, such as the Fed’s interest rate
hikes, high inflation, layoffs, and generally slowing economic growth have led to much uncertainty. Rough market conditions largely became the standard for much of the year, but that didn’t stop crypto from many incredible technological achievements. Improvements in DeFi like Compound v3 and the march of the ZK ecosystem continued regardless. Institutional adoption of crypto has also occurred at a rapid pace, with Disney, Starbucks, Adidas, and many other household brands quietly embracing blockchain. Large banks have also shown increasing interest in the sector: Fidelity launched a crypto service for investors, BlackRock partnered with Coinbase to bring its institutional clients crypto access, and Goldman Sachs is creating a new crypto data service. 
One industry highlight this year was the Ethereum
Merge in September, where the blockchain transitioned from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, reducing Ethereum’s energy usage by an incredible ~99.9%. Secondly, many amazing engineers continued to build through this bear market, and some of the strongest projects came out of it. Another benefit for the industry, though rough in the moment, was the lessons learned from each of the disasters that 2022 brought. Many projects – and even entire categories in crypto – have shown their resiliency in light of these events. If crypto has proven anything through its existence, though, it has proven that it can survive unfavorable times. Because of this, the industry will enter 2023 with a level of strength and durability that 2022 has given it. 
 
Here are my 6 predictions for the crypto industry in 2023:
DeFi will continue to grow while CeFi consolidates:
This past year exposed many of CeFi’s (centralized finance) problems, while DeFi at large functioned flawlessly. In light of 2022’s many CeFi collapses, I expect the industry to consolidate into highly regulated players like Coinbase and Bitstamp. 
In the period following the FTX collapse, DeFi transactions have already spiked, with volumes up 68% (to ~$97B) from October to November. Events like these prove the case for DeFi: governing assets via secure smart contracts enables users to better understand liquidity flows and have more control over their investments. 
Come 2023, I believe we’ll see more complex and interesting applications of DeFi grow. A few exciting examples are GMX, a decentralized perpetual exchange, and 1inch Pro, a regulatory-compliant platform that connects TradFi (traditional finance) to DeFi. Next year will also likely bring more traction for use cases like self-custody wallets, synthetic assets, and prediction markets. 
Despite market conditions, the sector’s true strengths lie in its foundational infrastructure that powers transactions in a trustless and efficient way. These properties will greatly accelerate DeFi’s adoption and growth in 2023, especially in light of CeFi’s struggles this year. 
We will see tremendous zero-knowledge adoption and use cases:
As the question of privacy comes to the forefront of the crypto industry, zero-knowledge technology has been particularly notable this year. Zero-knowledge technology essentially uses a prover, a verifier, and mathematical algorithms to prove something without revealing underlying information about the proof. Since blockchains are inherently transparent, this application is huge for the industry and allows many more interactions to take place on-chain in a private way. Zero-knowledge proofs are also extremely lightweight, making on-chain interactions much more scalable and efficient. 
With projects such as
Succinct Labs, Risczero, and Espresso Systems emerging, we’ve seen use cases for zero-knowledge proofs, VMs, and rollups explode. Zero-knowledge technology has particularly beneficial applications for identity as a crypto vertical. With zkps, users are able to prove their identity on-chain without having to reveal sensitive data. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin also noted in a recent piece how huge zero-knowledge technology is for solving the on-chain information problem – but that the category is “something that will actually need to be worked on.” 
ZK technology is also valuable for
bridges, which are able to transmit messages and tokens while guaranteeing security and correctness via succinct proofs. There are also exciting applications for TradFi systems like credit scores and taxes. 
 
Institutions will increasingly tokenize financial assets:
Real-world assets (RWAs) are financial primitives that represent a claim on an underlying asset and often produce yield for that asset. The emergence of the category has unlocked huge amounts of liquidity and utility so far, and 2023 will likely bring more assets represented on-chain in an accessible manner. 
Stablecoins are arguably the most popular application of a real-world asset in today’s market, with the category
constituting three of the top seven tokens by market capitalization. Circle’s USDC and Maker’s DAI have been top-tier stablecoins and have both seen almost no volatility throughout the bear market. 
On-chain communities have demonstrated demand for RWAs: for example, MakerDAO
decided in mid-2022 to invest $500M worth of DAI into US Treasurys and corporate bonds. Goldfinch, a company that provides loans that are collateralized off-chain, currently has an active loan value of ~$100M. Jia allows business owners to take out blockchain-based loans and generates substantial yields for liquidity providers backed by real-world businesses and assets. I expect 2023 to bring the growth of interesting applications of RWAs, such as flash loans and real estate. In-line with the real-world asset trend, I also expect to see a surge of startups focused on bringing TradFi institutions into crypto in a regulatory-compliant way. 
 
More companies will emerge to leverage blockchain data:
Arguably, rich and open-source data is one of the blockchain’s best features, as it allows for deep analysis of on-chain activity. Leveraging this data in an efficient and responsible way is integral to the expansion of blockchain dapps and their use cases. Data reveals a massive amount about how blockchains are used, emerging trends, user behavior, and on-chain money flows. 
Blockchain analytics platforms like
Nansen will continue to be critical for understanding on-chain analytics through wallet activity. Companies like nxyz are also tackling blockchain indexing by providing data APIs with no rate limits. Definitive emerged in 2022 to provide user acquisition tooling and insights for both on-chain and off-chain activity. Even with the growth of these companies, blockchain data is still largely untapped and I expect to see significant developments in the sector during 2023. To understand where crypto is going next, we need to get granular with our level of data analysis of the state of the industry as it is right now. 
 
The developer tooling stack will continue to grow as blockchain engineers increasingly seek easy and efficient ways to deploy Web3 projects:
Developer tooling eliminates many repetitive and tedious parts of the job and encourages more engineers to experiment with creating on-chain protocols. Companies like
Alchemy and Tenderly have been particularly critical players in the sector this past year. 
Despite the bear market, developers have experimented with on-chain applications more than ever. Alchemy recently
stated that it saw the number of engineers using its platform soar 3x since the start of the year. In September 2022, monthly verified smart contracts were up 2.6x year over year. Impressively, 2022 also saw 36% of total smart contracts ever deployed and verified. 
As a greater number of web3 developers get involved in the ecosystem, it is critical to provide them with sturdy tooling as they begin to build. Cross-chain tooling is particularly relevant, as it provides composable software that makes launching projects on multiple chains easy. By serving as the backbone for many crypto projects, developer tooling will continue to grow in 2023 as more crypto use cases arise and an increasing number of engineers seek to enter the industry. 
 
NFTs that provide some kind of value to their holder, such as gaming NFTs and identity NFTs, will expand:
Utility NFTs, such as in-game NFTs, identity tokens, and token-gated communities, software, and events will grow in 2023. This year, we’ve seen the sector start to develop technologically and creatively, but the space is nowhere near mainstream adoption. While the digital (pure) art industry is undoubtedly a massive vertical, using NFTs to permit specific privileges has the potential to disrupt many incumbent sectors. 
We’ve seen some exciting applications and developments of these ideas so far.
PROOF Collective allows its NFT holders to access future PROOF drops (one of which was the popular Moonbirds NFT project) and access to PROOF community initiatives, such as in-person events and a private Discord. Vitalik also released a formative paper on soulbound tokens (NFTs that hold on-chain identity information) which some projects have already adopted. Gaming transactions also skyrocketed in 2022, at one point composing over half of all blockchain activity. Further, NFTs are starting to be explored in the context of entertainment, specifically for fan engagement. 
Traditional companies have been exploring adoption of NFTs at an increasingly rapid pace. A few highlights: Tiffany’s released a
collection of pendants for CryptoPunk holders, Instagram announced that it will incorporate NFTs into its platform, and Nike acquired metaverse fashion company RTFKT. Royal has redefined music revenue streams and ownership by allowing fans to invest directly into songs. In addition, sports players like Cristiano Ronaldo have dropped NFT collections to drive up fan engagement and potentially give access to other future perks. 
In 2023, I’m excited to see industry disruption and ideas for utility NFTs fleshed out even further. Cryptonative applications, as well as traditional companies, will likely start to experiment more with using NFTs to bring something valuable to their owners.

How Were My Predictions About 2022? 

At the end of 2021, I made predictions about six sectors and you can read how I performed here. Last year’s annual predictions piece is here. 

My final takeaway from 2022

Despite some painful hacks and CeFi crashes, the crypto industry as a whole made huge technological strides in 2022. Even through the harsh crypto winter, web3 has reached an incredible amount of individuals – and the technology is clearly here to stay. Our job as an industry is to make that technology accessible, reliable, and safe for users around the world in order to usher in an era of financial transparency, dependability, and autonomy. Web3 continues to redefine how we think about money, ownership (of both physical and digital assets), identity, and community. I’m very excited to see what 2023 brings as we continue to accelerate the adoption of an economic layer to the internet. 
 
Paul Veradittakit | Partner Venture Capital Pantera Capital
E :
paul@panteracapital.com
M : +1 415 494 9001

Paul is a partner at Pantera Capital, where he works since almost eight years. He is an allrounder with several different activities and is highly interested in the blockchain technology. Furthermore, he is a board member at Blockfolio and at Staked. He also works as advisor for several companies, such as Ampleforth, Audius and Al Foundation. Pantera Capital was the first investment firm focused exclusively on bitcoin, other digital currencies, and companies in the blockchain tech ecosystem.  Pantera manages over $4.5 billion across three strategies – passive, hedge, and venture. Prior to founding Pantera in 2003, Dan Morehead served as Head of Macro Trading and CFO at Tiger Management.
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