ALTERNATIVE MARKETS UPDATE – MID DECEMBER 2023 & macro and political outlook december 2023 by macro eagle
The month of November has been quite successful for equities and bonds alike. With the stabilizing macroeconomic landscape, markets have adjusted to the current state with high rates and moderate to high, but decreasing, inflation. In the past month, there were promising signs that no more hikes are necessary to combat inflation. A notable percentage of market participants is even optimistic about rate cuts soon. While US inflation has gone down substantially already in summer, European countries are following and are on their way to similar levels as the US. Unsurprisingly, this led to a more positive view on longer-term rates. This was evident in falling yields for longer-term bonds. US and UK 10-year bonds’ yield decreased by around 10% since October, while German 10-year bonds decreased by almost 25%. Figure 1 summarizes the development of 10-year yields from October in the previously mentioned countries.