ALTERNATIVE MARKETS UPDATE - MID JUNE 2022

Inflation remains a major concern in 2022. It is also crucial to watch the central banks’ responses to deal with it. In particular, the inflation numbers in the coming months should be watched closely, as they likely determine the extent to which central banks intervene. As seen in May 2022, when the CPI was higher than expected, markets lost substantially. With current market expectation of US interest rates being close to 2% later this year, it is vital that the 50bps hike last month, as well as the upcoming hike (likely another 50bps) show effectiveness. If that should not hold, there will be a bumpy road ahead. Especially, as the Fed is starting to reduce its balance sheet, which puts further pressure on markets. A similar observation can be made for the UK. For the EU, this is likely occur a couple of months later, as they have not raised interest rates yet, but are expected to do very soon. This development, alongside the war and supply chain issues, has led to a more and more pessimistic view of GDP growth in most countries. The World Bank expects that most countries will in fact experience a recession. They further emphasize that stagflation is looming. The possibility of a stagflation environment is certainly not unlikely and many factors speak for it. For example, the very high inflation, frequently downward-adjusted GDP projections, and the pressure put on companies with significant supply chain problems among others. Although employment looks healthy in most countries, if this should worsen, the treat of stagflation becomes very urgent. A more detailed view on the macroeconomic situation is provided by Macro Eagle further below. Hedge funds are in a good position to mitigate much of this market volatility. Many hedge funds pursuing equity and fixed income strategies have experienced rough times but they have the capabilities to reduce risk in such a market environment, despite a rather unimpressive performance. Hedge funds that use different strategies than the previously mentioned ones, mostly had a great year. This is in particular true for global macro funds. A substantial number of funds managed to deliver a YTD in 2022 in excess of 100% already. Another strategy that stands out are funds of hedge funds that could truly show their risk mitigation potential. Although private equity and venture capital could not maintain their trend from 2021, the asset class still remains an attractive opportunity. Valuations are down since early 2022. However, the industry is still in a healthy state, despite the slump of public equities. Inflows in the industry are likely to be smaller than in 2021, but there is still significant investor interest as most investors report that their private equity investment substantially outperformed their public equity investments over the long-term. The industry also still sits on a large cash pile amassed over the past year that needs to be deployed. This pressure further mitigates the decline in valuations resulting from the bear market. ​

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RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE VOL. 181 June 2022 Alternative Markets Update June 2022 Inflation remains a major concern in 2022. It is also crucial to watch the central banks’ responses to deal with it. In particular, the inflation numbers in the coming months should be watched closely, as they likely determine the extent to which central banks intervene. As seen in May 2022, when the CPI was higher than expected, markets lost substantially. With current market expectation of US interest rates being close to 2% later this year, it is vital that the 50bps hike last month, as well as the upcoming hike (likely another 50bps) show effectiveness. If that should not hold, there will be a bumpy road ahead. Especially, as the Fed is starting to reduce its balance sheet, which puts further pressure on markets. A similar observation can be made for the UK. For the EU, this is likely occur a couple of months later, as they have not raised interest rates yet, but are expected to do very soon. This development, alongside the war and supply chain issues, has led to a more and more pessimistic view of GDP growth in most countries. The World Bank expects that most countries will in fact experience a recession. They further emphasize that stagflation is looming. The possibility of a stagflation environment is certainly not unlikely and many factors speak for it. For example, the very high inflation, frequently downward-adjusted GDP projections, and the pressure put on companies with significant supply chain problems among others. Although employment looks healthy in most countries, if this should worsen, the treat of stagflation becomes very urgent. A more detailed view on the macroeconomic situation is provided by Macro Eagle further below. Hedge funds are in a good position to mitigate much of this market volatility. Many hedge funds pursuing equity and fixed income strategies have experienced rough times but they have the capabilities to reduce risk in such a market environment, despite a rather unimpressive performance. Hedge funds that use different strategies than the previously mentioned ones, mostly had a great year. This is in particular true for global macro funds. A substantial number of funds managed to deliver a YTD in 2022 in excess of 100% already. Another strategy that stands out are funds of hedge funds that could truly show their risk mitigation potential. Although private equity and venture capital could not maintain their trend from 2021, the asset class still remains an attractive opportunity. Valuations are down since early 2022. However, the industry is still in a healthy state, despite the slump of public equities. Inflows in the industry are likely to be smaller than in 2021, but there is still significant investor interest as most investors report that their private equity investment substantially outperformed their public equity investments over the long-term. The industry also still sits on a large cash pile amassed over the past year that needs to be deployed. This pressure further mitigates the decline in valuations resulting from the bear market. The current macroeconomic environment also favours private debt. The rising interest rates benefit floating corporate credit strategies as well as special situations and distressed strategies. The latter profit from the increased pressure the rising rates put on companies and their balance sheet. The discontinued support from governments due to Covid-19 also stopped, leaving companies more vulnerable. This is further exacerbated by the generally high level of debt and leverage in the market. The real estate industry also benefits to some degree from these conditions. For the most part, as real assets, they benefit from the high inflation. Higher interest rate also means higher mortgage rates which will make buying a home more difficult for most people. Both of these factors make housing more expensive. A non-negligible concern is that there is a potential housing bubble, as house prices have soared for a long time and are at record highs. This makes the asset class susceptible if a severe recession occurs, which is not unlikely in the current market ecosystem. Cryptocurrencies are having a rough time in these economic conditions, but this also comes with opportunities. In 2022, cryptocurrencies are down between 30% to 75% in most instances with Bitcoin being relatively resilient with -34%. Ethereum is currently at -50% YTD. Newer, but still highly relevant coins, such as Solana are down 76%. Although there is significant risk of a crypto winter ahead, this also provides a great opportunity to enter the market. Cryptocurrencies are largely price-driven, not only in terms of performance but also developer involvement and startup activity, as shown Figure 1. Thus, if cryptocurrencies manage to break their current downward spiral, its upside potential is huge. Furthermore, in recent times, cryptocurrencies tend to have a high correlation with other asset classes at the beginning of a crisis. This cross-correlation tends to be short-lived. The real world applications of crypto also start to become evident. One example is DeFi (decentralized finance) which started to become an important part of revolutionizing banks. DeFi in total assets would already be the US’ 31st largest bank as shown in Figure 2. Another major innovation is web3 that is likely to disrupt web2 in the future. A key benefit is fairer distribution of income. The current internet giants take a majority share of the platforms revenues and leave very little to the creator. For example, Meta nearly takes 100% of revenue generated by FaceBook or Instagram. Other platforms, such as Youtube or the Apple Store take less, but still between 30% to 45%. In stark contrast, OpenSea, the most famous marketplace for NFTs, only charges 2.5% and the remainder is distributed to the creator. Figure 1: The Impact of Performance in Crypto Markets on Development and Startup Activity, Source: a16z, CoinMarketCap, GitHub, Pitchbook & Twitter, May 2022 Figure 2: Largest US Banks Measured by Total Assets under Management Compared to DeFi, Source: a16z, Defi Llama, Federal Reserve, May 2022 Macro and Political Outlook June 2022 By Macro Eagle 1 – May Recap. For those following markets through their monthly bank statement, May’22 was a non-event (S&P500: +0.0%). But for those of us who sail the market’s daily ups & downs, it was historic. In fact, with a realized equity vol of ~35%, this was one of the most volatile months ever. The overwhelming driver was the shift in market focus from financial worries (inflation and rate hikes) to ‘real economy’ concerns (recession/growth/earnings), as evidenced by May’s drops in both share prices and bond yields. Notice that the three big sell-offs were all triggered by growth or profit worries: very bad US productivity data (Thu 5th), Walmart/Target profit warnings (Wed 18th) and the realisation that TerraUSD/Luna’s woodoo-business-model wasn’t worth $40bn … but zero (Mon 9th). On the positive side, indications that Beijing was reversing its anti-growth Zero-Covid strategy, provided a tailwind to the equity rally in the fourth week. Figure 3: The S&P 500 in May 2022, Source: Macro Eagle, June 2022 2 – Top 10 of May (for the historical record). (1) First 50bp Fed hike in 22 years and strongest 1-day equity rally on a Fed day in a decade. (2) … followed by the biggest quarterly drop in US non-farm productivity since 1947. (3) … resulting in one of the sharpest 2-day US equity U-turns ever. (4) US 30y mortgage rates at highest since 2009. (5) Stablecoin TerraUSD/Luna implode, sending shockwaves through Cryptoland. (6) S&P500 down for 7 straight weeks, the longest losing streak since the 2001/Dotcom Bust. (7) China’s Industrial Production down -2.9% in April, worst monthly figure ever. (8) Target/Walmart with profit warning and worst daily drop since 1987. (9) UK inflation at 9% - worst since 1982. (10) The Eagles of Eintracht Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League – congrats Philip H … and Ukraine wins the Eurovision Song Contest - ‘Slava Ukraini’. Figure 4: The Fed Rate Hikes, TerraUSD, and the Nasdaq 100, Source: Macro Eagle, June 2022 3 – June Preview. This week the Fed started to shrink its $8.9trn balance sheet and Shanghai started to re-open, both of which should be significant for markets going forward, if maintained. Next week we get the ECB (preparing us for the first hike in July) and US inflation numbers (lower, but still way too high and probably sticky). After that comes the Fed (50bps hike) and the result of the French parliament election, which will finally get France/EU moving again. The fourth week will see two critical by-elections in the UK (red-wall Wakefield and deep-blue Tiverton), which, if lost by the Conservatives, will increase the odds of a leadership challenge. The last week will be geopolitically charged with the G7 Summit in Germany and the NATO Summit in Spain. The Ukrainian War feels like becoming a ‘frozen conflict’, with neither side winning. But because time decay is negative for both sides (Ukraine, politically, as the West is splitting into Hawks and Doves … Russia, economically, as sanctions start to bite) I wouldn’t discount a sharp move from either side. Figure 5: Macro and Political Events in June 2022, Source: Macro Eagle, June 2022 4 – The (Bear) Market Ahead. We are in a Bear Market. Here is why: (1) Bull Markets don’t go down for 7 weeks in a row for no reason. (2) The Fed is tightening into a slowdown. (3) Consumer spending based on borrowing may fuel a short-term rally, but isn’t sustainable in the medium-term. (4) Companies are naïve if they believe they will be able to pass inflation through to consumers without a political backlash, which means the “E” in P/E will go down. (5) We are in a negative feedback-loop, where any bear market rally prepares its own demise by loosening financial conditions, which in turn forces Central Banks to counteract. (6) Unlike after the Financial Crisis of 2008, when the political imperative was to support asset prices, now, with housing prices and inequality through the roof – the political imperative is to bring prices down and address affordability concerns. From a ‘framework’ perspective, I think we are in the late 1960s socio-politically, with good chance of social unrest ahead. But for financial markets, the proxy is probably the aftermath of the 2000s DotCom bubble: ‘down, slow and volatile’ (left graph). The good news is that I don’t see signs of a systemic crisis/market fracture, which would result in ‘down, fast-and-furious’ repricing like in 2008 (right graph).  Bottom line: expect markets to grind lower/deflate, with vicious bear-market rallies in between. Figure 6: Comparison of the Bear Markets in 2000 and 2008, Source: Macro Eagle, June 2022 5 – Private Markets & the Accounting Put. One of my historical “sniff tests” of which ‘area of finance’ to be concerned about, is whoever has become the most important client of investment banks: it was Dotcom into 2001, Structured Credit players into 2008 and at the moment it is Private Market actors (private equity, private debt and venture capital). With about $1 trillion in dry powder (left graph), private equity dominates the M&A league tables, with ever more funds (7,000+) chasing LPs and ever more cross-over-investors (‘tourists’) entering the sector. An in-depth discussion about the risk profile of private investments is beyond the scope of this note, but what I find most worrying is that many LPs invested in private markets believe to own an “accounting put”, i.e. the expectation that in down-markets GPs will smoothen their quarterly valuations, as opposed to the daily mark-to-market of their public market counterparts. This assumption will soon get tested, as cross-over-investors (like Tiger Global, down 52% ytd) mark down their private holdings, forcing others down through the practise of co-investments. Listed Private Equity has certainly been trading like BigTech (see right graph), so will see what happens to the upcoming quarterly marks of their funds. The CIO of Amundi recently compared private markets to a ‘big bubble’, with certain parts resembling a ‘Ponzi scheme’ – I do share his view. Figure 7: Private Market Fundraising, and the Performance of Listed Private Equity Companies, Source: Macro Eagle, June 2022 6 – On Politics: Local vs. Global. I often see the current political battles described as “right vs. left” or “moderates vs. populists”. That’s not a correct description. What you are seeing is “localists” (which includes the Green by the way) vs “globalists”, with the former winning, but most in the City part of the latter. In May we saw this again in the strong gains by the Greens in the German local elections and the Australian general election. We saw it in France, where the “localist” Melenchon-Left has destroyed and then absorbed the centre-left (‘NUPES’). We saw it in Orban’s victory in Hungary, as well as in Marcos Jr victory in the Philippines. We also see it in Biden’s dismal approval ratings. This will continue and is a very predictable reaction to the excesses of the ‘globalist era’. The financial market implication is very simple: “Country First” means resilience over efficiency, which socially makes a lot of sense, but economically is inflationary. And inflation combined with a focus on increased fiscal policy, means that debt issuance is not the easy option anymore. Which means taxation will have to go up, shrinking corporate earnings further (as already mentioned before). All very predictable.   7 – On China. With Beijing Zero-Covid strategy adding to the ongoing Techlash, corruption crackdown and financial de-leveraging efforts, investors have been very worried about a ‘grand policy disaster’. This might be about to change. After the Politburo vowed to support growth (April 29th), the Politburo again turned around, issuing a warning not to question the Zero-Covid strategy (May 6th). But it is the latter which is killing the Politburo’s 5.5% growth target, and visible in the disastrous Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers (May 16th). After that Prime Minister Li warned officials about the seriousness of the economic situation (May 25th) which led to Beijing announcing a re-opening plan (May 30th) and expectations of a big bond-financed government infrastructure programme. If this time they follow through, this could be an important growth-impulse for Emerging Markets, so keep an eye on Copper and Iron Ore prices (right graph). Figure 8: China’s Equity, Covid Cases, and Commodity Prices of Copper and Iron Ore, Source: Macro Eagle, June 2022 8 - On Markets. Strategically, my view remains the same: avoid assets that governments can print (bonds) and/or corporates with big profits but few jobs (BigTech), as they will become political targets. Look for real asset opportunities, including equities, with political tailwind (energy, defence, levelling up, R&D, renewables). Add value/quality, avoid growth/cyclicals. Most importantly: spread your bets. Tactically be aware that illiquidity could become a significant issue, especially as Central Banks are draining the pipes. Keep enough cash buffer not be forced to do anything stupid.  This Bear Market will only be over once people stop playing the 2010s playbook (i.e. “Buy The Dips”) and when we see true panic/capitulation, something we haven’t seen so far. Will we get vicious Bear Market rallies? Absolutely. The whole point of sailing through a storm is that the ship goes up and down with the waves hitting it. What matters is to arrive on the other side – intact, but wet. If you don’t like getting wet, don’t leave the port. Simple. Figure 9: Investor Sentiment, Undervalued Commodities, and the 10-Year US Yield, Source: Macro Eagle, June 2022 Stay safe ... have a great June ... congratulations to Her Majesty for 70 years on the throne  … MAY THE MARKET BE WITH YOU ... and Long May She Reign. God Save The Queen.  Bobby   The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of, and should not be attributed to, Stone Mountain Capital LTD. Readers should refer to the Disclaimer. Bobby Vedral MacroEagle E : [email protected] M : +447899996595 M: +447899996595   Bobby is a macro-political analyst who runs his own fund MacroEagle. 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