Alternatives Market Review 2017

*|MC_PREVIEW_TEXT|*

RESEARCH PERSPECTIVE VOL.73 FEBRUARY 2018 Download Research Perspective Alternatives Market Update - Stone Mountain Capital Strategies 2017 2017 was the year producing the strongest return for hedge funds since 2013 and second best since 2009. Stone Mountain Capital strategies outperformed in last year’s environment across all asset classes. Credit was the only strategy underperforming its peers, caused by yield compression in the direct lending space. One, out of only three negative strategies was in credit, while the other two, were CTAs that struggled amid the low volatility and trendless environment. Despite these two strategies, tactical trading was overall the best performing strategy with strong returns generated by discretionary global macro and cryptocurrency. Equities enjoyed a very profitable year and Stone Mountain Capital’s mandated equity hedge managers produced astonishing returns, beating their traditional and alternative peers. Finally, fund of hedge funds recovered from their 2016 losses, surviving while the industry’s model is evolving.   Credit/Fixed Income Strategies 2017 Return Annualised Return Annualised Volatility Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio SMC Credit Strategy Index 5.31% 7.80% 4.70% 1.96 0.36 Credit Suisse Fixed Income Index 6.52% 5.20% 5.10% 0.63 -0.27 HFRX Credit/Fixed Income Index 3.87% 5.67% 5.16% 0.71 -0.27 UAIX Fixed Income-Global (UCITS) 2.17% 5.78% 4.57% 1.26 1.94 BofA ML US Corporate Master Index 6.61% 7.50% 6.35% 0.87 -0.15 Equity Strategies 2017 Return Annualised Return Annualised Volatility Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio SMC Equity Strategy Index 20.35% 13.48% 12.14% 1.05 0.47 Credit Suisse L/S Equity Hedge Index 13.41% 8.78% 8.99% 0.75 -0.05 HFRX Equity Hedge Index 9.98% 5.44% 7.83% 0.44 -0.20 UAIX L/S Equity (UCITS) 7.05% 6.62% 5.38% 1.23 1.88 S&P 500 17.94% 7.45% 14.30% 0.38 -0.09 Tactical Trading Strategies 2017 Return Annualised Return Annualised Volatility Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio SMC Tactical Trading Strategy Index 35.64%* 26.14% 19.20% 1.37 0.53 Credit Suisse Global Macro Index 2.14% 9.73% 8.75% 0.88 -0.01 HFRX CTA Index 5.05% 4.01% 9.30% 0.21 -0.24 HFRX RV Volatility Index 5.41% 4.62% 4.50% 0.58 -0.42 CBOE Eurekahedge RV Volatility Index 3.27%*  8.84% 3.66% 1.87 -0.38 UAIX CTA (UCITS) 2.01% 7.41% 11.10% 0.67 1.05 Fund of Hedge Funds Strategies 2017 Return Annualised Return Annualised Volatility Sharpe Ratio Sortino Ratio SMC FoHF Strategy Index 8.41% 6.42% 6.96% 0.65 -0.18 HFRI FoHF Index 7.73%  6.41% 5.45% 0.85 -0.33 UAIX Multi-Strategy (UCITS) 4.70% 5.32% 4.78% 1.11 1.56 SMC Single Manager Cross-Asset Index 20.44% 15.97% 12% 1.49 0.45 SMC Cross-Asset Index 19.63% 15.34% 11.67% 1.43 0.41 Stone Mountain Capital In-House Indices vs. Major Benchmark Indices Hedge Funds and Long Only  in 2017,  Stone Mountain Capital Research SMC strategy indices are not investable products but are used as indication of our managers' performance and are calculated with the equally-weighted method.   Alternatives Market 2017 Review Hedge Funds Hedge funds started 2017 under pressure and the overall industry’s model was in question. Performance and fees were the main topic of debate among investors at the beginning of the year, but hedge funds managed to pull a strong year with no down month. Despite losses from some large managers, the industry overall generated strong returns according to HFR data attracting more capital. Per HFR, total hedge fund industry AuM increased by $59bn to $3.21tr, the sixth consecutive quarterly record for total industry AuM. The inflows suggest a sign of regained optimism, but the industry will need to sustain its performance long-term in order to regain its calibre. The oxymoron of the industry is the fact that equity hedge were the best performing strategies amongst hedge funds but suffered the biggest outflows. Macro, CTAs and multi-strategy attracted more capital this year, and given the outlook for more volatility and less central bank intervention, investors target further allocations in those sub-sectors. Figure 1. 2017 Hedge Fund Industry Performance, Source: HFR, Stone Mountain Capital Research Figure 2. 2017 Hedge Fund Industry AUM, Source: Preqin Private Debt Private debt continued its fundraising momentum in 2017 seeking to capitalise on investors’ search for uncorrelated sources of income. It was a record year for commitments in the asset class according to Pitchbook, a fact that highlights the increased competition in the space. This competition subsequently led to yield compression and more covenant lite lending agreements. Manager selection and due diligence becomes crucial amid this heated market, where deal flow is increased and the quality of deals deteriorated. The Alternative Credit Council projects the asset class to reach $1trilling from $630bn currently until 2020. The interest in the space is caused by the compression in the liquid credit markets, which urges investors to explore the private credit spectrum, with focus on floating-rate strategies like US CLOs and direct lending. Investors seek to harvest complexity, illiquidity and regulatory premiums in private credit, whilst keeping its low volatility profile. Investors target mainly mezzanine, direct lending and distressed debt in their search for yield. Figure 3.  Private Debt AUM and breakdown of committed capital and dry powder, Source: Alternative Credit Council Research Figure 4. Global Private Debt Fundraising by Type, Source: Pitchbook Private Equity The investors’ appetite for private equity continued last year bringing the dry powder in the asset class to record levels. Closing larger funds takes less time than usual, but the challenge remains the identification of good investment opportunities and deal sourcing. High valuations and exit environment were the challenges in 2017 and remain for the year to come. In 2017, almost 1,700 companies went public, a large increase since 2016. This year, investors would look into niche private equity funds investing in unique sectors that generate premiums not available in public markets. Direct competition from investors increased the entry prices and last year shaped a risky environment with huge sum of dry powder, slowing down exit activity and high valuations. Approximately 4,200 private equity deals were completed in 2017 reflecting capital of $347bn according to Preqin. The political environment seemed to stabilise in 2017, with concerns remaining about the terms of Brexit. This helped private equity firms raise record-level capital of $453bn during 2017. Figure 5. Global Private Equity Fundraising 1996-2017, Source: Preqin Real Estate 2017 was a year of records for real estate equally. Urbanisation, co-living and co-working, and increased use of technology were the main themes last year and we expect those to continue in 2018. Almost 5,200 transactions were completed in 2017, while the asset class saw their assets, number of funds and dry powder reaching record levels. Brexit caused turbulences in the UK and European market, with other major hubs like Frankfurt, Paris and Dublin exploiting the new environment. Interest rates, deal flow and valuations were the main challenges last year and the increased number of funds made manager selection tougher. Figure 6. Real Estate Fundraising 2010-2017, Source: Preqin   Cryptocurrencies 2017 was the breakout year for crypto currencies and attracted a lot of attention among institutions. Ripple, a new solution for bank payment, was the biggest winner among its peers and the 2 major cryptocurrencies, according to market cap, Bitcoin and Ethereum also generated astonishing but volatile returns. Last year, we evidenced a lot of regulatory events in an attempt to better regulate the asset class particularly in Asia. During the summer, China shut down currency exchanges and later on banned ICOs. The SEC rejected the first Bitcoin ETF application but is reviewing a plethora of other related instruments. On the other hand, countries like Russia, India, Japan and Switzerland seem to be accepting the use of Bitcoin for transactions including regulatory frameworks. The most recent evolvement of the asset class was the launch of future contracts, which will allow for better price discovery, less volatility, shorting and better regulation. The institutionalisation of the asset class is boosting the capitalisation growth of the market, which currently stands at $551bn. Bitcoin experienced huge volatility movements, starting from less than $1,000, jumping to $20,000 before retreating to around $10,000. Ethereum also experienced a large increase in its value, as it started the year trading at $10 and currently is trading at nearly $1,150. 2018 could be a year to determine the future of the market and we expect institutional money to flow in the asset class for the first time. Figure 7. Crypto Market Cap as of Jan 2018 Source: Coinmarketcap.com, Stone Mountain Capital Research STONE MOUNTAIN CAPITAL   Stone Mountain Capital is an advisory boutique established in 2012 and headquartered in London. We are advising 30+ best in class single hedge fund and fund of fund managers across equity, credit, and tactical trading (global macro and CTAs). In private equity and private debt, we advise 10+ general partners across the sectors real estate, infrastructure / real assets and capital relief trades (CRT) by structuring funding vehicles, rating advisory and private placements. As per 17th January 2018, Stone Mountain Capital has total alternative Assets under Advisory (AuA) of US$ 51.1 billion. US$ 48 billion is mandated in hedge fund AuM and US$ 3.1 billion in private assets (private equity / private debt) and corporate finance. Stone Mountain Capital has arranged new capital commitments of US$ 1.15 billion across hedge fund, private asset and corporate finance mandates.   Our Team   Our Solutions   Our Mandates   Our Research   Our News     Contact We are able to source any specific alternative investment search and maintain relationships with dozens of best-in-class hedge fund managers, private equity and private debt general partners (GPs) and real estate and infrastructure developers. We don’t pass any costs on to our investors, since our compensation comes from our mandated managers, GPs and developers. Please contact us, should you require further information about our solutions.  Stone Mountain Capital is a limited company (LTD) registered in England & Wales with registered number 8763463. The registered address is: 31 Compayne Gardens, London NW6 3DD, England, United Kingdom. Stone Mountain Capital LTD is registered (FRN: 729609) as Appointed Representative with the Financial Conduct Authority (‘FCA’) in the United Kingdom. Stone Mountain Capital LTD is the Distributor of foreign collective investment schemes distributed to qualified investors in Switzerland. Certain of those foreign collective investment schemes are represented by First Independent Fund Services LTD, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (‘FINMA') as Swiss Representative of foreign collective investment schemes pursuant to Art 13 para 2 let. h in the Federal Act on Collective Investment Schemes (CISA). Stone Mountain Capital LTD conducts securities related activities in the U.S. pursuant to a Securities and Exchange Commission ('SEC') Rule 15a-6 Agreement with Crito Capital LLC, a U.S. SEC registered broker-dealer, and member of Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (‘FINRA') and Securities Investor Protection Corporation ('SIPC'). All information in this perspective including research is classified as minor acceptable non-monetary benefits ('MNMB') in accordance with article 11(5)(a) of the MiFID Delegated Directive (EU) 2017/593 and FCA COBS 2.3A.19. Copyright © 2018 Stone Mountain Capital LTD. All rights reserved.   Any business communication, sent by or on behalf of Stone Mountain Capital LTD or one of its affiliated firms or other entities (together "Stone Mountain"), is confidential and may be privileged or otherwise protected. This e-mail message is for information purposes only, it is not a recommendation, advice, offer or solicitation to buy or sell a product or service nor an official confirmation of any transaction. It is directed at persons who are professionals and is not intended for retail customer use. This e-mail message and any attachments are for the sole use of the intended recipient(s). Our LTD accepts no liability for the content of this email, or for the consequences of any actions taken on the basis of the information provided, unless that information is subsequently confirmed in writing. Any views or opinions presented in this email are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the limited company. Any unauthorised review, use, disclosure or distribution is prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient, please notify the sender by reply e-mail and destroy all copies of the original message and any attachments. By replying to this e-mail, you consent to Stone Mountain monitoring the content of any e-mails you send to or receive from Stone Mountain. Stone Mountain is not liable for any opinions expressed by the sender where this is a non-business e-mail. Emails are not secure and cannot be guaranteed to be error free. Anyone who communicates with us by email is taken to accept these risks. This message is subject to our terms at: www.stonemountain-capital.com/disclaimer.